The high box is oscillating, waiting for the direction
Blockchain secondary market report for the 50th week of 2020
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Highlights of this report:
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Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
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Details of this report:
Summarize
Details of this report:
As of the statistical time of the report (December 15, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$543.425 billion, an increase of 1.37% from the same period last week; Up 52.19%.
As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -1.56%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -0.60%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is -0.12%.
This week, the market remained volatile at a high level, the market turnover could be pulled back, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market fell back under pressure from a high level, fluctuated from 560 billion US dollars, and barely stayed above 520 billion US dollars. Then the market bottomed out and rebounded, reaching a maximum of 567 billion US dollars. It rebounded above 560 billion US dollars in late trading, and the daily average value of the total market value was 5434.25 billion U.S. dollars, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of external markets, various risk assets generally fell this week, and the new round of anti-epidemic stimulus measures in the United States once again stalled.
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 37.42%
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges
From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through upwards, and the price remained high and volatile this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 219.180 billion yuan, a decrease of 131.040 billion yuan from last week Yuan, a decrease of 37.42%. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.
[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb
This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 287.54%, a drop of 142.53% or 33.14% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 54.70%, the lowest was 33.20%, and the extreme value difference was 21.49 percentage points. . Among them, ETC fell the most, with a cumulative turnover rate of 616.49% this week, a drop of 41.06% from last week.
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange
[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.
[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.
The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.
Source: Tradingview, TokenMania
[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.
[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.
Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.
Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.
Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania
Source: BitMEX, TokenMania
Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index
Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania
This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index fluctuated and went down in the intraday session. At the end of the day, it rose by 4.6% compared with the same period last week; the opening value was 1.97, the highest value was 3.34, the lowest value was 1.88, and the closing value was 2.06; the Fear & Greed Index was 95 points 7 days ago. The highest point is 95 points and the lowest point is 86 points. The latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 91 points, which is a slight drop from 95 points in the same period last week, but it still remains at a staged high level. With the price of Bitcoin breaking through a record high, it remains high and volatile. The current market sentiment remains extremely greedy.
7. Futures contracts: forward futures maintain a premium, and the market continues to be bullish in the future
From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts with different durations basically maintained premiums this week, and the market continues to be bullish in the long run. In 2020, the growth rate of options trading volume is about 5.4 times faster than that of futures trading volume. From January to the end of November, the trading volume of Ethereum options increased by more than 2800%. This week, with the price of Bitcoin breaking through $19,000 again, The Binance BTCUSD perpetual futures contract maintained a negative funding rate for a time. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.07%, with a premium of 0.24 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.44%, with a premium of 0.11 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 1.43%, with a premium of 1.43% 2.28 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.04%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.49%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract (delivered in March of the following year) is 3.35%. This week, the forward contract once again experienced short-term pin insertion. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent pin pullbacks and platform downtime and other reasons resulting in a liquidation.
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data
From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.
From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.
Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania
Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania
Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania
Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania
9. Summary
9. Summary
Market trend: This week, the market remained volatile at a high level, market turnover could be adjusted back, and investor sentiment remained extremely greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market fell back under pressure from a high level, fluctuated from 560 billion US dollars, and barely stayed above 520 billion US dollars. Then the market bottomed out and rebounded, reaching a maximum of 567 billion US dollars. It rebounded above 560 billion US dollars in late trading, and the daily average value of the total market value was 5434.25 billion U.S. dollars, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of external markets, various risk assets generally fell this week, and the new round of anti-epidemic stimulus measures in the United States once again stalled.
This week, the price of Bitcoin generally fluctuated within a narrow range between 17,600 and 19,200 US dollars. It once fell back below 18,000 US dollars during the session, and then rebounded quickly, and stabilized above 19,000 US dollars in late trading. From the perspective of the disk, Bitcoin failed to effectively break through the $20,000 pressure zone in several rounds of attempts this week, but the price did not drop significantly during the adjustment period. There is a certain support below, and the market continues to maintain a high level of volatility. This week, the market volume can continue to pull back at a high level, but the market generally maintains confidence. This week, the greed index as a whole remains above 90, and investors maintain extreme greed. Institutional investors accelerated their entry, Grayscale continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin, and Fidelity Investment Group announced that it was establishing a fiat currency trading channel for digital currencies, laying the foundation for more incremental capital entry; overall, the current upward trend of the daily line level is not stable. However, it is difficult for the market to break out of the new trend in the short term. It is still necessary to effectively break through the strong pressure zone of 20,000 US dollars. The amplitude of the basis difference has increased, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 37.42%. The cumulative total trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 1,534.262 billion yuan, a decrease of 917.283 billion yuan or 37.42% from last week. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Binance (40.61%), Huobi (28.79%), OKEX (21.03%), the trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 90.43% of the total trading volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges decreased by 1.96% compared with last week; Binance this week The cumulative trading volume decreased by 248.691 billion yuan or 28.53% compared with last week. The cumulative trading volume of Huobi this week decreased by 513.743 billion yuan or 53.77% compared with last week. It was 26.31%.
The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 2.01% to 41,434,706 US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.46% to 10,663,415 yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 44.40% to 5,850,996 million bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 165598.30VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 35.36657 million yuan. In the previous statistical week, the over-the-counter BTC trading volume calculated at the current exchange rate was about 24.4683 million yuan, an increase of 44.54% in the latest week compared with the previous week.
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets decreased by 33.14%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 287.54%, a drop of 142.53% or 33.14% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 54.70%, the lowest was 33.20%, and the extreme value difference was 21.49 percentage points. . Among them, ETC fell the most, with a cumulative turnover rate of 616.49% this week, a drop of 41.06% from last week.
The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (616.49% this week, down 429.50% or 41.06% from last week), EOS (519.79% this week, down 259.71% or 33.32% from last week) , LTC (513.79% this week, down 260.03% from last week, a drop of 33.60%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (56.11% this week, down 15.02% from last week, a drop of 21.12%), XLM (119.97% this week, up 7.43% or 6.60% from last week), ETH (125.95% this week, down 53.27% or 29.72% from last week).
Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 3.56%, and total USDT circulation decreased by 1.5%. This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,078,641 BTC; the USDT balance on the exchange was 8,493.39 million USDT, an increase of 3.555% over the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 19.834 billion USD It was down 1.5% in the same period last week.
USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The USDT premium rate fluctuated widely this week, and remained at parity in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.11% this week, with a maximum premium of 5.00%, a minimum premium of -0.19%, and a closing premium of 0.09%; as the market continued to rise , The USDT premium rate has recently fluctuated more and maintained a positive premium range as a whole.
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy. The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, maintaining a weak positive premium at the end of the session. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.04% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.20%, a minimum premium of -0.20%, and a closing premium of 0.06%; Maintain a high level of volatility, the recent fluctuations in the USDT premium rate have weakened, and the overall maintenance of a weak positive premium.
Futures contracts: From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts of different durations basically maintained premiums this week, and the market continues to be bullish in the long run. In 2020, the growth rate of options trading volume is about 5.4 times faster than that of futures trading volume. From January to the end of November, the trading volume of Ethereum options increased by more than 2800%. This week, with the price of Bitcoin breaking through $19,000 again, The Binance BTCUSD perpetual futures contract maintained a negative funding rate for a time. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.07%, with a premium of 0.24 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.44%, with a premium of 0.11 percentage points; the average quarterly contract premium is 1.43%, with a premium of 1.43% 2.28 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.04%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.49%, and the latest premium of the quarterly contract (delivered in March of the following year) is 3.35%. This week, the forward contract once again experienced short-term pin insertion. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent pin pullbacks and platform downtime and other reasons resulting in a liquidation.
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risk warning
Price correction risk
Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations
Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations
The risk of further spread of the epidemic
Bitcoin contract price fluctuations
disclaimer
TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.
The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.
The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.
The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.
The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.
