TAMC Research Institute: Continued game of funds, high volatility and consolidation

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-12-09 05:57

This article is about 8326 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 49th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 49th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 49th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: funds continue to game, the market fluctuates at a high level
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 39.46%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets decreased by 31.15%
Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 4.57%, total USDT circulation increased by 5.62%
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and long-short expectations switch frequently
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. This week's market trend: funds continue to play games, and the market fluctuates at a high level

As of the statistical time of the report (December 8, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$565.98 billion, an increase of 5.4% from the same period last week; The mean was down 22.2%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -1.23%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -0.28%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 0.11%.

This week, the market maintained a consolidation trend at a high level, the market volume was able to pull back sharply, and investors remained extremely greedy. This week, the market as a whole maintained a range consolidation. At the beginning of the week, the market rose to 590 billion and then fell under pressure. It pulled back below 550 billion US dollars, and then rebounded and fluctuated in the range of 550-580 billion US dollars. It remained above 560 billion US dollars in late trading. The average total market value was 562.34 billion U.S. dollars, up 5.34% from the same period last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week, and the new US stimulus measures are expected to boost the market. The three major US stock indexes collectively rose, crude oil hit a new high since March this year, and gold prices rose slightly.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

image description

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 39.46%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through upwards, and the price remained high and volatile this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 349.686 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.889 billion yuan from last week Yuan, a decrease of 39.46%. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets decreased by 31.15%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 430.08%, a drop of 194.56% or 31.15% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 92.92%, the lowest was 41.24%, and the extreme value difference was 51.68 percentage points. Among them, XLM fell the most, with a cumulative turnover rate of 112.54% this week, a drop of 71.49% from last week.

image description

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 4.57%, total USDT circulation increased by 5.62%

image description

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 11 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, maintaining a positive premium at the end of the session. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.09% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.22%, a minimum premium of -0.12%, and a closing premium of 0.06%. Fluctuating at a high level, the fluctuation of the USDT premium rate has weakened recently, and the overall maintenance of the positive premium range.

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

image description

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and fell, down 35.35% from the same period last week; the opening value was 2.20, the highest value was 2.20, the lowest value was 1.81, and the closing value was 1.92; the fear & greed index was 95 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 95 points , the lowest was 88 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 95 points, which remained unchanged from 95 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin broke through a record high and remained high and volatile, market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and long-short expectations switch frequently

From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts of different durations fluctuated in a wide range this week, and the volume can be reduced compared with the previous period. The market's long-short expectations switch frequently, and it is difficult to choose a direction in the short term. The total volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures this week was $720 billion, down 56% from the previous week; the total net short open interest of CME leveraged funds continued to increase, setting a record for the past two weeks . From the perspective of the term structure, the average weekly contract of OKEX this week decreased by 0.66%, and the premium increased by 0.13 percentage points; the average contract of the next week decreased by 0.47%, and the premium increased by 0.13 percentage points; the average quarterly contract increased by 1.07%, and the premium increased by 0.20% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.17%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has a latest discount of 0.25%, the latest quarterly contract price has a latest premium of 1.07%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contract price has been 0.00%. On the whole, the current price fluctuations are relatively large, and it is difficult to choose a direction in the short term. At the same time, it is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

image description

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

image description

Figure 17 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

Market trend: This week the market maintained a consolidation trend at a high level, the market volume can be adjusted sharply, and investors remain extremely greedy. This week, the market as a whole maintained a range consolidation. At the beginning of the week, the market rose to 590 billion and then fell under pressure. It pulled back below 550 billion US dollars, and then rebounded and fluctuated in the range of 550-580 billion US dollars. It remained above 560 billion US dollars in late trading. The average total market value was 562.34 billion U.S. dollars, up 5.34% from the same period last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally rose this week, and the new US stimulus measures are expected to boost the market. The three major US stock indexes collectively rose, crude oil hit a new high since March this year, and gold prices rose slightly.

This week, the bitcoin price generally maintained a narrow range of 18,500-19,500 US dollars. It reached a high of 19,470 US dollars in the session and then quickly pulled back. It stabilized above 18,700 US dollars in the late trading. From the perspective of the disk, the current overall market remains at a high level. Several rounds of tentative upsides for Bitcoin have not effectively broken through the upper resistance zone. The volume can be pulled back sharply at a high level. The shipment data of Bitcoin giant whales has increased, and the probability of FOMO sentiment reappearing Smaller; this week, the total trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures fell by 56% from the previous week, and the total net short open positions of leveraged funds on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased. Maintain confidence and investors maintain extreme greed. During the same period, the total amount of USDT in circulation increased by more than 5% this week. Grayscale continued to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Most currencies are still in a strong sideways stage, and prices have not dropped significantly during the adjustment period; overall From the point of view, in the case of the overall stabilization of the external market, the short-term may maintain a high level of volatility and change hands. The new round of rising market needs to be matched by volume. If the high level does not break for a long time, you must pay attention to the risk of a callback; at the same time, futures investors are advised to pay attention to risks Optimize the platform, strictly control the position, and prevent the liquidation caused by pin callback and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 52.19%. This week, the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges was 2,447.799 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,595.222 billion yuan or 39.46% from last week. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Huobi (38.98%), Binance (35.56%), OKEX (17.86%), the volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 92.39% of the total volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges decreased by 0.38% compared with last week; Huobi this week The cumulative trading volume decreased by 780.219 billion yuan from last week, a drop of 44.99%. The cumulative trading volume of Binance this week dropped by 492.048 billion yuan from last week, a drop of 36.12%. was 33.17%.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 4.681% to 40.617545 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 20.55% to 11.777631 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 13.0% to 4051.905 billion Bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 165598.30VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 24.4683 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets decreased by 31.15%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 430.08%, a drop of 194.56% or 31.15% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 92.92%, the lowest was 41.24%, and the extreme value difference was 51.68 percentage points. Among them, XLM fell the most, with a cumulative turnover rate of 112.54% this week, a drop of 71.49% from last week. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1045.99% this week, down 353.85% or 25.28% from last week), EOS (779.50% this week, down 333.96% or 29.99% from last week) , LTC (773.82% this week, down 114.34% from last week, down 12.87%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (71.13% this week, down 19.20% from last week, down 21.26%), XLM (112.54% this week, down 282.22% from last week, down 71.49%), ETH (179.22% this week, down 53.72% from last week, down 23.06%).

Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 4.57%, and total USDT circulation increased by 5.62%. This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,124,210 BTC; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,108.56 million USDT, a decrease of 4.57% from the same period last week; An increase of 5.62% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The volatility of the premium rate has weakened, and the overall maintenance of the positive premium range. The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium at the end of the session. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.09% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.22%, a minimum premium of -0.12%, and a closing premium of 0.06%. High volatility, USDT premium rate fluctuations have weakened recently, maintaining a positive premium range as a whole.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy. This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and fell, down 35.35% from the same period last week; the opening value was 2.20, the highest value was 2.20, the lowest value was 1.81, and the closing value was 1.92; the fear & greed index was 95 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 95 points , the lowest was 88 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 95 points, which remained unchanged from 95 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin broke through a record high and remained high and volatile, market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: Contracts with different maturities fluctuated in a wide range this week, and the volume can be reduced compared with the previous period. The market's long-short expectations switch frequently, and it is difficult to choose a direction in the short term. The total volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures this week was $720 billion, down 56% from the previous week; the total net short open interest of CME leveraged funds continued to increase, setting a record for the past two weeks . From the perspective of the term structure, the average weekly contract of OKEX this week decreased by 0.66%, and the premium increased by 0.13 percentage points; the average contract of the next week decreased by 0.47%, and the premium increased by 0.13 percentage points; the average quarterly contract increased by 1.07%, and the premium increased by 0.20% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.17%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has a latest discount of 0.25%, the latest quarterly contract price has a latest premium of 1.07%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contract price has been 0.00%. On the whole, the current price fluctuations are relatively large, and it is difficult to choose a direction in the short term. At the same time, it is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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