Large-scale upward movement hits a new record high, pay attention to the risk of callback in the short term

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-12-03 00:30

This article is about 8500 words, reading the full article takes about 13 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 48th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 48th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 48th week of 2020

November 23, 2020 - December 1, 2020

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Key content of this report
This week's market trend: large-scale upwards hit a record high, pay attention to the risk of callbacks in the short term
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 52.19%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 35.41%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated sharply, maintaining a positive premium at the end of the day
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy
Summarize
Summarize

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Details of this report

1. This week's market trend: heavy volume and upwards hit a new record high, pay attention to the risk of callback in the short term

As of the statistical time of the report (December 1, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$543.425 billion, an increase of 1.37% from the same period last week; Up 52.19%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 5.76%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 4.38%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 5.32%.This week, the large-scale stock market rose to a record high, and the market trading atmosphere remained active. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations rose across the board, and investor sentiment was extremely greedy.

At the beginning of the week, the market started to fluctuate upwards from around US$525 billion, breaking through the US$5,750 point and approaching the previous high. On Thursday, the market fell by a waterfall and once fell back below US$500 billion. After 2 days of consolidation at the bottom, it stabilized and rebounded, and entered the upward channel again. The daily average value of the total market capitalization rose by 1.37% from last week. In terms of the external market, various risk assets generally rose this week, crude oil prices continued to rise, gold prices fell sharply by more than 4.5%, and Bitcoin yields outshone others.

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Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

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Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 35.41%

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Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1399.85% this week, up 272.56% or 24.18% from last week), EOS (1113.46% this week, up 235.27% or 26.79% from last week) , LTC (888.16% this week, up 69.73% or 8.52% from last week); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (90.33% this week, up 7.90% from last week, or 9.58%), ETH (232.93% this week, up 27.93% from last week, up 13.62%), ADA (296.50% this week, up 123.87% from last week, up 71.76%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

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The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 11 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

The USDT premium rate fluctuated widely this week, and remained at parity in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.11% this week, with a maximum premium of 5.00%, a minimum premium of -0.19%, and a closing premium of 0.09%; as the market continued to rise , The USDT premium rate has recently fluctuated more and maintained a positive premium range as a whole.

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

6. Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuates in a wide range, and the market sentiment is extremely greedy

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

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Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and rose, down 13.16% from the same period last week; the opening value was 3.42, the highest value was 8.31, the lowest value was 2.94, and the closing value was 2.97; the fear & greed index was 91 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 94 points , the lowest point is 86 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 95 points, which is 4 points higher than 91 points in the same period last week. With the price of Bitcoin hitting a record high after three years, the market sentiment remains extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: Contract prices fluctuate in a wide range, and the market remains bullish in the long run

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Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

8. Macro perspective: All kinds of risky assets have generally risen, and the rate of return of Bitcoin ranks first

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

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Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

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Figure 17 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction; the market has recently gone up, and the price has hit a record high, but in the long run, digital currencies are relatively low in valuation. , digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.

9. Summary

9. SummaryThe trend of the market: This week, the market has increased in volume and hit a record high. The market trading atmosphere remains active. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations have all risen, and investor sentiment is extremely greedy.

From the perspective of the disk, after Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction on Thursday this week, the short-term risk of market overheating has been released to a certain extent. As high as above $19,800, it broke the record in December 2017 and hit a record high. During the same period, ETH rebounded strongly and broke through $600 again. The number of active addresses increased strongly, and the difficulty of the Ethereum network hit a record high. The overall trading atmosphere in the market remains active, the USDT premium rate maintains a positive premium range as a whole, the support levels of various indicators move up, the short-term market bullishness continues to heat up, more external traffic focuses on top projects, and investors remain extremely greedy; at the same time, The current number of active Bitcoin addresses has risen to a high point, and the number of active Bitcoin addresses containing more than $10 has exceeded 2017. Institutional investors are accelerating the deployment of digital currencies, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust continues to increase its holdings. The current total holdings have exceeded 535,000 BTC.

Overall, compared with the high point in 2017, there is stronger fundamental support for this round of rise. However, in the short term, as the price rises to a high level, the cost of new funds entering the market outside the market is high, and as the resistance to cashing in profit orders increases, it is difficult to maintain the previous volume to push up the price. There is a possibility that the market will step back in stages, and it may remain high in the short term. Change hands, you can open a position to buy on dips. At the same time, the current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions to prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 52.19%.

The total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 4.067337 billion yuan, an increase of 1.394711 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 52.19%. From the perspective of transaction volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of transaction volume are Huobi (42.90%), Binance (33.70%), OKEX (16.18%), the trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 92.77% of the total trading volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges decreased by 0.20% compared with last week; Huobi this week The cumulative trading volume increased by 581.781 billion yuan, an increase of 50.03% compared with last week. The cumulative trading volume of Binance this week increased by 476.601 billion yuan, an increase of 53.31%. It was 53.76%.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 10.08% to 36.4382 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 20.56% to 11.714 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 3.78% to 2754.611 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 119,007.7148VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 23.1465 million yuan.Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 35.41%.

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 624.64%, an increase of 163.36% or 35.41% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 125.33%, the lowest was 61.39%, and the extreme value difference was 63.93 percentage points; among them, ETC was the largest increaser First, this week rose 272.56% from last week. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1399.85% this week, up 272.56% or 24.18% from last week), EOS (1113.46% this week, up 235.27% or 26.79% from last week) , LTC (888.16% this week, up 69.73% or 8.52% from last week); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (90.33% this week, up 7.90% from last week, or 9.58%), ETH (232.93% this week, up 27.93% from last week, up 13.62%), ADA (296.50% this week, up 123.87% from last week, up 71.76%).Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 2.804%, and total USDT circulation increased by 3.57%.

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,137,908 BTC; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,448.95 million USDT, a decrease of 2.804% from the same period last week; This was an increase of 3.57% over the same period last week.USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated sharply and remained positive in late trading.

The current open interest of CME Bitcoin futures contracts exceeds USD 1.16 billion, making it the largest Bitcoin futures market in the world. From the perspective of term structure, OKEX’s weekly contracts rose by an average of 0.17% this week, with a premium of 2.64 percentage points; the average contract for the next week rose by 0.54%, with a premium of 3.24 percentage points; the average quarterly contract fell by 0.03%, with a premium of 3.84% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.03%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest premium of 0.12%, the latest quarterly contract price premium of 0.87%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contract. This week, the forward contract once again experienced short-term pin insertion. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased, and the market sentiment remains extremely greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent pin pullbacks and platform downtime and other reasons resulting in a liquidation.The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

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