Upside breakout hits new highs, market greed strengthens

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-11-25 11:42

This article is about 8130 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 47th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 47th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 47th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: heavy-volume breakthroughs reached a new level, and market greed became stronger
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 48.70%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 48.63%
Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 2.79%
USDT premium rate: wide fluctuations, the premium rate basically maintains a positive premium
Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Index Soars High and Falls, Market Sentiment Is Extremely Greedy
Futures contracts: Forward futures maintain premiums, and institutional investors accelerate their entry
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. This week's market trend: heavy volume breakthroughs reached a new level, and market greed became stronger

As of the statistical time of the report (November 24, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$532.294 billion, an increase of 16.72% from the same period last week; The mean is up 98.46%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 8.21%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 7.83%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 7.24%.

This week, the large-scale market broke through to a new level, the market trading sentiment was hot, the investor sentiment remained extremely greedy, and institutional investors accelerated their deployment. At the beginning of the week, the market started to rise from around 475 billion U.S. dollars. After a whole day of trading around 500 billion U.S. dollars, the market entered the acceleration channel at the beginning of Friday, breaking through the 530 billion and 550 billion U.S. dollars one after another, and the highest hit 567.8 billion U.S. dollars. The high level was slightly corrected at the end of the week. Closed at around US$560 billion, the daily average value of the total market capitalization rose by 16.72% from last week. In terms of the external market, this week, with the news of the new crown vaccine, the market risk appetite has picked up, various risk assets have risen and fallen, the price of gold has declined slightly, and Bitcoin's income is thriving.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 48.70%

The total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 2.670594 trillion yuan, an increase of 874.596 billion yuan or 48.70% compared with last week. From the perspective of transaction volume structure, the top three exchanges with the largest proportion of transaction volume are Huobi (43.51%), Binance (33.45%), OKEX (16.01%), the trading volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 92.98% of the total trading volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges increased by 0.11% compared with last week; Huobi this week Cumulative trading volume increased by 405.295 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 53.56%. Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 284.429 billion yuan from last week, an increase of 46.71%. was 41.52%.

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through upwards, and the price continued to rise this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine exchanges this week was 381.513 billion yuan, an increase of 124.942 billion from last week billion, an increase of 48.70%. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 48.63%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 461.28%, an increase of 150.93% from last week, an increase of 48.63%. First, this week rose 41.62% from last week.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 2.79%

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Figure 10 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 11 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 13 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and rose, up 51.83% from the same period last week; the opening value was 2.22, the highest value was 5.54, the lowest value was 1.81, and the closing value was 2.90; the fear & greed index was 89 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 94 points , the lowest was 86 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 94 points, an increase of 4 points from 90 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, the market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

7. Futures contracts: Forward futures maintain a premium, and institutional investors accelerate their entry

From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts with different durations maintained premiums this week, the market volume can continue to expand, and institutional investors have accelerated their entry. The total volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures this week was $319 million, up 73% from the previous week. From the perspective of the term structure, this week OKEX's weekly contracts fell by an average of 0.97%, and the premium fell by 891 percentage points; the average contract for the next week fell by 1.15%, and the premium fell by 402.9 percentage points; the quarterly contracts fell by an average of 0.67%, and the premium fell by 140.68 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 2.15%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract price discount is 2.52%, and the latest quarterly contract price discount is 2.97%. The price of forward contracts accelerated this week, and the market remained greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 16 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Figure 17 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

The trend of the market: This week, the market has broken through a new level of heavy volume, the market trading sentiment is hot, the investor sentiment remains extremely greedy, and institutional investors accelerate their deployment.At the beginning of the week, the market started to rise from around 475 billion U.S. dollars. After a whole day of trading around 500 billion U.S. dollars, the market entered the acceleration channel at the beginning of Friday, breaking through the 530 billion and 550 billion U.S. dollars one after another, and the highest hit 567.8 billion U.S. dollars. The high level was slightly corrected at the end of the week. Closed at around US$560 billion, the daily average value of the total market capitalization rose by 16.72% from last week. In terms of the external market, this week, with the news of the new crown vaccine, the market risk appetite has picked up, various risk assets have risen and fallen, the price of gold has declined slightly, and Bitcoin's income is thriving.

From the perspective of the disk, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upwards this week. After breaking through the previous high, it continued to break through upwards. It refreshed a new high in the past three years and was close to hitting the historical high. After a rapid correction on Sunday, it quickly rebounded and stabilized above $18,000 in late trading; Ethereum 2.0 The balance of the deposit contract address has reached the minimum requirement for launching the Ethereum 2.0 genesis block. Affected by the good news of the fundamentals and the increase in institutional holdings, the demand for Ethereum is high, and it once exceeded $620. From the point of view of energy, after Bitcoin has experienced the shocks and energy storage in the early stage, this attack is extremely aggressive, regaining the previous chip loss and setting a new high in one fell swoop, the market trading volume has increased significantly, investor sentiment has improved, and more external At the same time, the current institutional investors are accelerating their entry, and the volume of the Bitcoin contract market can continue to expand. The total monthly trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin futures has increased by more than 73% compared with the previous week, and the total holdings of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have exceeded 527,000 BTC . On the whole, there is a strong supporting force around $18,000 for Bitcoin, and the upward channel is expected to continue to extend. Short-term risks have been released to a certain extent after Sunday’s sharp correction, and so far there has been no effective selling pressure to threaten the support level. Before falling below the short-term moving average, spot investors can follow the trend and continue to hold. In addition, this week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 48.70%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 10.08% to 36.4382 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 20.56% to 11.714 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 3.78% to 2754.611 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 119,007.7148VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 23.1465 million yuan.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 10.08% to 36.4382 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 20.56% to 11.714 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 3.78% to 2754.611 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 119,007.7148VES), the OTC BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 23.1465 million yuan.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 48.63%.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 461.28%, an increase of 150.93% from last week, an increase of 48.63%; the highest turnover rate was 89.07%, the lowest was 46.43%, and the extreme value difference was 42.64 percentage points; among them, ETC ranked first First, this week rose 41.62% from last week. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1127.29% this week, up 331.32% or 41.62% from last week), EOS (878.19% this week, up 373.83% or 74.12% from last week) , LTC (818.43% this week, up 327.57% from last week, up 66.73%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are BTC (82.43% this week, up 12.17% from last week, up 17.32%), XLM (111.55% this week, up 50.88% from last week, up 83.86%), ADA (172.63% this week, up 48.97% from last week, up 39.60%).

Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance increased by 2.79%.This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,132,385 BTC; the exchange’s USDT balance was 7,663.86 million USDT, an increase of 2.79% over the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 18.4696 billion US dollars.

USDT premium rate: fluctuates in a wide range, basically maintaining a positive premium.The USDT premium rate fluctuated widely this week, and remained at parity in late trading. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.07% this week, with a maximum premium of 12.00%, a minimum premium of -0.01%, and a closing premium of 0.10%; as the market continued to rise , the amplitude of the USDT premium rate has recently increased, and the overall maintenance of a positive premium.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index rose and fell, and the market sentiment was extremely greedy.This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and rose, up 51.83% from the same period last week; the opening value was 2.22, the highest value was 5.54, the lowest value was 1.81, and the closing value was 2.90; the fear & greed index was 89 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 94 points , the lowest was 86 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 94 points, an increase of 4 points from 90 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, the market sentiment remained extremely greedy.

Futures contracts: Contracts of different durations maintained premiums this week, the market volume can continue to expand, and institutional investors have accelerated their entry.The total volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures this week was $319 million, up 73% from the previous week. From the perspective of the term structure, the weekly contracts of OKEX this week decreased by an average of 0.97%, and the premium decreased by 891 percentage points; the average contract of the next week decreased by 1.15%, and the premium decreased by 402.9 percentage points; the quarterly contracts decreased by an average of 0.67%, and the premium decreased by 140.68 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 2.15%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price has the latest discount of 2.52%, the latest discount of quarterly contract price is 2.97%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contract price. The price of forward contracts accelerated this week, and the market remained greedy. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Macro perspective: This week, the COVID-19 vaccine has once again come out with heavy positive news, the market risk appetite has picked up, various risk assets have risen and fallen, crude oil prices have risen sharply, and Bitcoin has outperformed the rise.The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

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