The new crown vaccine developed by Pfizer and its partner BioNTech SE was better than expected, and the news that the effectiveness exceeded 90% shocked the entire capital market.

On the day when the news fermented, the Dow Jones Index futures once rose by more than 5% in a straight line. The stock prices of crude oil and companies in industries such as aviation, cruise ships, and tourism, which were affected by the epidemic, soared by 20-30%. Instantly filled.

At the same time, FTX launched the second batch of U.S. stock equity token spot and contracts, including Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA), mainland UGC upstart Bilibili (BILI), artificial meat leader Beyond Meat (BYND), the U.S. Healthcare company Pfizer (PFE) and "vaccine stock" BioNTech SE (BNTX).

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Beyond Meat, is it really the next Tesla?

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TSLA's monthly line is almost a parabolic move

There is such a company, regarded by many followers as the "next Tesla", it is artificial meat star Beyond Meat.

The founder of Beyond Meat, Ethan Brown, is a vegetarian who was born in a family that runs a dairy business. He has always wondered why human beings consume protein through meat.

In 2020, the level of global methane emissions soared to a record high level. Excessive production of methane will worsen the greenhouse effect and damage the air environment. What many people don't understand is that global livestock farming and oil and gas production are the two engines driving the rise in methane emissions, and the former is no less damaging to the environment than the latter.

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Beyond Meat official website product introduction

It is worth mentioning that the development of artificial meat can be divided into two generations. The first generation is what we often call vegetarian meat and vegetarian chicken. Soy products, gluten, etc. are used as raw materials to achieve the effect of simulating meat products by improving their appearance and taste. In this process, the raw materials are purely physical changes.

The second-generation artificial meat led by Beyond Meat is essentially a series of chemical reactions to extract protein isolates from plants, and then through a complex cell cultivation process to simulate the growth of meat cells.

Therefore, first of all, from the concept of the company, Beyond Meat and Tesla do have some similarities - both have strong technological attributes and try to improve the human atmospheric environment.

Secondly, from the perspective of development, Beyond Meat has also experienced and is currently experiencing public doubts about the artificial meat market, "Who would buy artificial meat except vegetarians?", "If fake meat is more expensive than real meat, who will buy it?" Will you buy it?", "If the taste of fake meat is poor, meat lovers will not pay."

So, this is a bit like the public’s doubts about new energy vehicles five or six years ago, “What should I do if there is no power?”, “New energy vehicles are more expensive than traditional vehicles, who will buy them?” and so on.

Taking my personal experience of trying artificial meat products as an example, the current price and taste are comprehensive, and the price/performance ratio is really average for people who are used to meat.

The current taste of artificial meat is between "you don't tell me this is artificial meat, I may not feel it when I eat it" and "if you tell me in advance that it is artificial meat, then I will feel the looseness and bitterness of the meat "between. It is also this imperfect product experience that has led many people to look down on artificial meat companies.

But if you look at it from the perspective of development, these problems are worth tracking and discussing. Whether it is the reduction of production costs after large-scale production, or the further improvement of the taste in the future, it is possible to be improved. After all, the development of things is Dynamic, spiral evolution.

In addition, let us not forget that the meat market is a giant, even if it can only stir up a little bit of the market share of the original meat eaters. Due to the attractiveness of the price after the cost is reduced in the future, as long as some people can really change their original eating habits, it will be a great imagination for artificial meat companies.

Interestingly, Beyond Meat also chose to seize the Chinese consumer market at an early stage, which is a bit more similar to Tesla. First, it teamed up with Starbucks in China for a new artificial meat meal, and at the same time, it cooperated with KFC and Pizza Hut under Yum China. Cooperated to launch related vegetarian fried chicken and other products, and officially announced the news of the establishment of a factory in China in September this year. The Chinese artificial meat factory in Jiaxing, Zhejiang will be fully operational in 2021.

Of course, we need to look at everything dialectically. Beyond Meat's just-released Q3 financial report was significantly weaker than expected, with a net loss of US$19.3 million, a net profit of US$4.099 million in the same period last year, and a net profit of US$3.067 million expected by the market. BYND's stock price plummeted by more than 25%.

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BioNTech SE, do you want to go long or short?

The news that the effectiveness of the new crown vaccine exceeds 90% and is much better than expected may be the biggest topic in the capital market this week.

When time passed relentlessly until November, it seemed that the nearly one-year-old new crown epidemic would still completely dissipate. The approaching release of the vaccine was like a shot in the arm, giving countless people a warm hug in the dark.

For secondary market investment and transactions, we might as well discuss the position of vaccine stocks in the current market.

Since past market trends have shown that compared with Pfizer, BNTX has a more sensitive and continuous response to vaccine news, so the next part of this article takes BNTX as an example.

It is clear from the beginning that with the increasing attention of human beings to life and health and the strengthening of related needs, we do not deny the main tone of the long-term improvement of the vaccine industry, but one question we still have to think about is whether the stock prices of companies related to the new crown vaccine are being suppressed. Too much price in?

Here, the short side has a classic argument that due to government cooperation or humanitarian spirit, the new crown vaccine production company cannot obtain excess commercial profits.

In contrast, many parties believe that the new crown vaccine is bound to be accepted by the vast majority of people, the audience is almost unlimited, and it will definitely contribute huge profits to R&D companies.

In fact, it is relatively difficult to distinguish which point of view is more logical and self-consistent in such long-short thinking. We might as well start from the general law of theme hype in the secondary market.

Such a general rule is manifested in the fact that when it comes to subject speculation or theme hype, changes in market stock prices are always significantly ahead of actual developments, and what affects short- and medium-term market prices is the difference in investors' expectations.

The biggest difference in expectations is often when the matter is in the "hazy beauty" and half-hidden by the pipa;

When the expected difference is the most certain, it is often when the matter is about to come out. If there is a nib on the window paper, then you are almost sure that the paper will be punctured soon;

When the difference in expectations disappears, it is often the moment when the event lands. People’s expectations for this event can no longer be extended upwards, and may even collapse downwards. The reality is at the clearest moment, so the gap between expectations and reality Differences tend to converge to extremes.

Therefore, when the effectiveness of the new crown vaccine test exceeds 90%, the certainty of the subject will usher in the maximum. It may be the days when it goes public.

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CGC weekly trend

The hype of marijuana-related concept stocks in 2018 has two obvious tops. One is the top that is expected to be fully priced in, which is when the Canadian cannabis-related bill has just been finalized. The other is the official implementation of the legalization bill. The day the mass sale begins.

If we think about it a little more, we can divide global and vaccine-themed stocks into several categories according to the strength of the trend and the degree of capital attention:

The first category is the leading team, which is typically characterized by a strong movement structure. Specific cases include Novavax Pharmaceuticals (NVAX), CanSino Biologics (HK06185), and BioNTech SE (BNTX).

The second category is the follower team. The typical feature is that the overall trend is not as strong as the first category. At the same time, the company’s research and development and testing results on the new crown vaccine are not as hard-core as the former. Specific cases include INO, MRNA, and Fosun Pharma.

The third category is the miscellaneous team, which covers all other vaccine-related companies that have little relevance or whose market capitalization is still extremely small.

When we open the K-lines of these stocks, it is easy to draw a conclusion that their price movements are at the end.

Due to space limitations, the K-line chart will not be expanded here.

Fortunately, FTX has launched the contract transactions of the first two batches of equity tokens, which means that traders can bet on both long and short.

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FTX launched the spot and contract trading of BNTX equity token

Regardless of whether it is up or down, whether it is long or short, what we can be 100% sure of is the emergence of trading opportunities brought about by volatility.