Recently, a popular joke on the Internet said, "Yesterday I broke my heart for the richest person in the country, and today I broke my heart for the world's most powerful person." This is about Jack Ma and Trump. Although this is a joke, it involves financial regulation, the US election and other related news.

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image descriptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-us-election-results

Time: 14:47, November 5, 2020

The U.S. election seems to be pulling everyone's nerves, staring at the U.S. stock index, it seems that Bitcoin will soar into the sky with the victory of a certain president.

First, the relationship between whether Bitcoin rises or not and the US election may not be as close as everyone thinks. When is it close? Perhaps in the next or next US presidential election, the two candidates will have a special debate on the issue of digital currency;

Second, it is possible for the price of Bitcoin to be linked to the U.S. market. There are two schools of thought here:

• US stock market. For example, BTC is linked to NDX100 (Nasdaq 100 index), the index rises and the price of BTC rises, rising and falling at the same time;

• exchange rate. There is a strong relationship between Bitcoin and the CNY/USD exchange rate. When the renminbi depreciates against the U.S. dollar, the price of bitcoin rises; when the renminbi appreciates, the price of bitcoin falls. It can be inferred that the price increase of Bitcoin will be higher in RMB than in USD.

The general election affects the market. American elites don’t like Trump’s style very much. If Biden takes office, the stock market will pull up and then pull back. I will talk about related operations below.

Third, regardless of whether the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is in power, whether it is Trump or Biden as president, the overall strategic situation remains unchanged, but there will be a certain price performance in Bitcoin, but this ups and downs will be smoothed out quickly. The range is lower than the volatility of Bitcoin prices near October 24 and 25, 2019. The 1024 incident has a far-reaching impact on the currency circle than the US election. The way to quickly arbitrage here is actually very simple. If the position falls, don’t sell it. If it rises quickly, sell it, and then buy it when it returns to the current price. In the face of volatility and return, this is the simplest strategy for arbitrage at the spot level.

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Supervision strengthened

I will be careful with my words in this paragraph, because the information is not enough and I am worried about making mistakes.

First, there has been a lot of news about mainstream exchanges such as OKEx recently, and people are panicking. In fact, yesterday I made and deposited funds on an exchange to see if I was blocked. But everything is normal, except for some slightly troublesome verification methods.

Second, on October 24th, Ma Yun made a bold statement on the Bund in Shanghai, "Financial supervision cannot use yesterday's methods to control the future", including the view that digital currency is the future. Then I was invited to drink tea. Nearly $70 billion has been wiped off Alibaba's market value. Alibaba's market value is 800 billion US dollars, which is equal to two currency circles. Ma Yun's remarks are quite good and worth reading. Here is the text of one of his speeches randomly found on the Internet:

https://www.8age.cn/yuanma/18823

Don't exaggerate the impact, it won't be that serious in the short term, "crossing the river by feeling the stones" - this sentence is an important theoretical basis for understanding the current situation.

1024 brain holes:

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ETH2.0

Compared with the above things, this matter seems small. Everyone can think about it, how many years has it been since the upgrade of Ethereum? I started talking about it in 2015, and now it’s the fifth year. It’s impossible to fully upgrade in 2020, and it will be a year later to switch to the PoS mechanism.

I'm certainly not talking about the so-called phase 0 of ETH2.0 that the media recently reported (it's a bit of a mouthful, that's what it says), or the upcoming deposit contract. About 10 months later, the upgrade or change of ETH will cause the mining disaster of the ETH graphics card mining machine.

The graphics card miners who saw my remarks can clear the graphics card mining machines before June next year, temporarily withdraw from the graphics card mining field, and continue to mine ETH or Conflux in the last week, and the income is good. Dear investors, if you start to buy graphics card mining machines at this time, the way to avoid falling into the pit is to persuade other people to buy the mining machines from you, which is risk transfer, as the saying goes, "take over". In the second half of 2021 (expected in August), ETH will usher in a difficulty bomb. A simplified understanding means that mining will become much more difficult. It will be the life and death of graphics card mining machines.

Of course, the best-configured batch of machines should still be alive, but not well enough. Another situation is that graphics card mining is very profitable this year, and friends who have made a lot of money start to increase their positions in graphics card mining machines, and then by the end of next year, they may lose a lot of money earned this year.

Summarize

Summarize

Recently, everyone is not at ease, but Bitcoin has firmly stood at 14,000 US dollars. After reading the above analysis, you should understand that there is nothing to worry about in the near future. You need to be keen in market research and rough in investment.

"He is strong by him, and the breeze blows the hills; he is horizontal by him, and the bright moon shines on the river" - "Yi Tian Tu Long Ji"