The trend of consolidation at high levels is upward, and institutional demand for Bitcoin increases

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-10-21 12:33

This article is about 8359 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 42nd week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: the trend of consolidation at high levels is upward, and the demand for institutional funds increases
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 15.41%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 13.17%
Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 3.53%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Pulls Back, Sentiment Remains Greedy
Futures contracts: Forward futures maintain premiums, and institutional trading demand increases
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: the trend of consolidation at high levels is upward, and the demand for institutional funds increases

As of the statistical time of the report (October 20, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$361.021 billion, an increase of 3.86% from the same period last week; The mean is down 9.95%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 4.12%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 3.75%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 3.67%.

This week, the market rebounded upwards, market trading activity increased, and investors remained greedy. At the beginning of the week, the market remained in the range of 350-360 billion US dollars, and then rebounded to above 365 billion US dollars. After the pressure and correction, it rose again in late trading. The average market value of global assets was 359.565 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.49% over the same period last week . In the external market, uncertainties in the economic outlook and market concerns about the second outbreak in Europe and the United States have suppressed market risk appetite. This week, global risk assets were mixed, with Bitcoin leading the rise and gold prices falling slightly.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 15.41%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars and then fluctuated and pulled back. Prices fluctuated at high levels this week. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 154.463 billion yuan, an increase of 20.630 billion yuan or 15.41% from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 13.17%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 311.34%, an increase of 36.22% or 13.17% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 48.95%, the lowest was 41.72%, and the extreme value difference was 7.22 percentage points; among them, BCH ranked first First, the cumulative turnover rate this week was 340.24%, an increase of 109.76% from last week; EOS ranked first in the decline, with a cumulative turnover rate of 548.11% this week, a decrease of 107.60% from last week.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: USDT balance decreased by 3.53%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2.27554 million BTC, unchanged from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7.0179 billion USDT, a decrease of 3.53% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$15.577 billion, down 0.23% from the same period last week.

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week’s Bitcoin volatility index has decreased compared with the same period last week. The opening value was 2.36, the highest value was 2.53, the lowest value was 0.94, and the closing value was 1.01. 52 points, the latest panic and greed index is 55, with the price of Bitcoin rebounding to a high level, the market sentiment remains greedy.

7. Futures contracts: Forward futures maintain premiums, and institutional trading demands increase

From the perspective of futures contracts, the forward contract prices fluctuated in a wide range this week, basically above the spot price. The basis of forward contracts has expanded, and the market's bullish expectations have increased. Bakkt bitcoin delivery volume hit a record high in October, with more than 400 BTC futures contracts scheduled to expire on Bakkt in October, a 14% increase from the previous month, indicating that institutional demand for BTC has increased significantly. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.07%, and the premium has decreased by 0.01 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.20%, and the premium has increased by 0.19 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has been 1.84%, and the premium has increased by 0.19% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is -0.08%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price rose by 0.16%, and the quarterly contract price rose by 2.08%. As of the report statistics time, the 24-hour long-short ratio of the BitMEX BTC / USD margin market was 50.81%:49.19%, and the long position was slightly dominant. This week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Global risk assets have been mixed this week, with bitcoin leading the way and gold prices falling slightly. Uncertainties in the economic outlook and market concerns about the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States have suppressed market risk appetite. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq rose 0.79% this week to 11671.56 points; the Dow rose 0.07% to 28606.31 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 3483.81 points. The index has risen for three consecutive weeks; COMEX gold futures fell 1.03% weekly to $1902.60/oz, ending a two-week winning streak; Brent crude oil rose 0.16% weekly to $42.79/barrel; the onshore yuan rose 0.15% weekly, Reported at 6.70; in the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.96% this week to 3336.36 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.83% to 13532.73 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.93% to 2724.50 points; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.11 %, reported 24386.79 points, and the cumulative net purchase of northbound funds this week was 11.119 billion yuan.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1771.90%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, the performance of other asset returns is divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 36.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 76.20%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -1.34%, and gold rose by 48.59%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week the market rebounded upwards, market trading activity increased, and investors remained greedy.At the beginning of the week, the market remained in the range of 350-360 billion US dollars, and then rebounded to above 365 billion US dollars. After the pressure and correction, it rose again in late trading. The average market value of global assets was 359.565 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.49% over the same period last week . In terms of the external market, global risk assets have been mixed this week, with Bitcoin leading the rise and gold prices falling slightly; the economic outlook is uncertain, and market concerns about the second outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States have suppressed market risk appetite.

After Square and others announced the purchase of Bitcoin, the asset management company Stone Ridge recently confirmed that it had purchased 10,000 Bitcoins worth approximately $115 million. Institutional demand for BTC increased significantly, and Bakkt’s Bitcoin delivery volume hit a record in October New highs, more than 400 BTC futures contracts expiring in October, up 14% month-on-month. From the perspective of the market, the overall price of Bitcoin fluctuated upwards this week, showing an obvious defensive form during the correction of the market. There is a certain supporting force above $11,100. In late trading, it once again rose above $11,700 and stood firm for a short time. The transaction is active. In the short term, the market maintains a bullish sentiment; although OKex’s limited deposit and withdrawal event has suppressed market sentiment, and there is still great uncertainty in the opening of the withdrawal time, the short-term panic has basically been released, and asset security is basically risk-free; Consider The resistance in the $11,700-$12,000 area is relatively strong. In the short term, it may maintain a high position and change hands. It can be bought on dips after a callback. In addition, the current overall volatility of Bitcoin futures has increased to prevent the black swan event before the U.S. election. Hope futures investors Pay attention to the risk-optimized platform and reduce the leverage multiple.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 15.41%.This week, the cumulative total trading volume of the nine major exchanges was 1,081.243 billion yuan, an increase of 144.412 billion yuan or 15.41% from last week; from the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges in terms of trading volume are Huobi (41.93%), Binance (29.42%), OKEX (22.17%), the volume of the top three exchanges accounted for 93.52% of the total volume of the nine exchanges, and the proportion of the top three exchanges increased by 0.31% compared with last week; Huobi this week Cumulative trading volume increased by 97.765 billion yuan compared with last week, an increase of 27.50%. Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week increased by 16.741 billion yuan, an increase of 5.56%. was 10.84%.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 13.17%.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 311.34%, an increase of 36.22% or 13.17% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 48.95%, the lowest was 41.72%, and the extreme value difference was 7.22 percentage points; among them, BCH ranked first First, the cumulative turnover rate this week was 340.24%, an increase of 109.76% from last week; EOS ranked first in the decline, with a cumulative turnover rate of 548.11% this week, a decrease of 107.60% from last week.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (673.33% this week, up 167.88% or 33.21% from last week), EOS (548.11% this week, down 107.60% or 16.41% from last week) , LTC (514.36% this week, up 96.51% from last week, up 23.10%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (66.99% this week, up 4.07% from last week, up 6.47%), BTC (76.50% this week, up 4.27% from last week, up 5.91%), XRP (105.85% this week, down 7.80% from last week, down 6.87%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance remained unchanged, USDT balance decreased by 0.28%.This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2.27554 million BTC, unchanged from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7.0179 billion USDT, a decrease of 3.53% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$15.577 billion, down 0.23% from the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading.The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium at the end of the session. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.06% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.16%, a minimum premium of 0.00%, and a closing premium of 0.04%. High volatility, the market sentiment remained greedy this week, the USDT premium rate remained within a narrow range, and overall the premium level remained in a relatively low range.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The VIX pulls back as market sentiment remains greedy.This week’s Bitcoin volatility index has decreased compared with the same period last week. The opening value was 2.36, the highest value was 2.53, the lowest value was 0.94, and the closing value was 1.01. 52 points, the latest panic and greed index is 55, with the price of Bitcoin rebounding to a high level, the market sentiment remains greedy.

Futures contracts: The prices of forward contracts fluctuated in a wide range this week, basically above the spot price. The basis of forward contracts has expanded, and the market is bullish and expects to increase.Bakkt bitcoin delivery volume hit a record high in October, with more than 400 BTC futures contracts scheduled to expire on Bakkt in October, a 14% increase from the previous month, indicating that institutional demand for BTC has increased significantly. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.07%, and the premium has decreased by 0.01 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.20%, and the premium has increased by 0.19 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has been 1.84%, and the premium has increased by 0.19% percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is -0.08%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract price rose by 0.16%, and the quarterly contract’s latest premium rose by 2.08%. As of the time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio of BITMEX BTC / USD margin market was 50.81%:49.19%, with long positions slightly dominant. This week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Macro perspective: Global risk assets have been mixed this week, with Bitcoin leading the way and gold prices falling slightly.The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

disclaimer

TAMC Research Institute does not have any relationship with digital assets or other third parties involved in this report that may affect the objectivity, independence, and impartiality of the report.

The materials and data cited in this report come from compliance channels. The sources of the materials and data are considered reliable by TAMC Research Institute, and necessary verifications have been carried out for their authenticity, accuracy and completeness. However, TAMC Research Institute is not responsible for makes no warranty as to its truth, accuracy or completeness.

The content of the report is for reference only, and the facts and opinions in the report do not constitute any investment advice on relevant digital assets. TAMC Research Institute shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of the contents of this report, unless expressly stipulated by laws and regulations. Readers should not make investment decisions solely based on this report, nor should they lose the ability to make independent judgments based on this report.

The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.

The copyright of this report is only owned by TAMC Research Institute. If you want to quote the content of this report, please indicate the source. Please let me know in advance if you need to quote a lot, and use it within the scope of permission. Under no circumstances shall any quotation, abridgement and modification contrary to the original intention be made to this report.

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