Shrinking upward rebound is under pressure, and market sentiment remains cautious

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-10-01 02:13

This article is about 7988 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 39th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 39th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 39th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

1. This week's market trend: Shrinking upward rebound is under pressure, and market sentiment remains cautious

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 6.01%

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 31.81%

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.32%, USDT balance decreased by 0.35%

5. USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading

6. Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated downward, and market sentiment remained cautious

7. Futures contracts: the basis spread widens and divergences intensify, Bakkt market volume can be pulled back

8. Macro perspective: All kinds of risky assets have generally fallen, and the yield of Bitcoin ranks first

Details of this report:

Details of this report:

1. This week’s market trend: Shrinking upward rebound is under pressure, and market sentiment remains cautious

As of the statistical time of the report (September 29, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$334.314 billion, an increase of 4.07% from the same period last week; The mean is down 21.12%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 4.31%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 3.67%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 3.07%.

This week, the market rebounded upwards and fell under pressure, market trading activity decreased slightly, and investor sentiment remained cautious. At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range around 330 billion US dollars. It fell below 320 billion US dollars at one point, and then started a wave of rebounds, recovering the 3300 and 340 billion US dollars one after another. It closed above 340 billion US dollars in late trading, and the average value of the total market value was 334.314 billion US dollars , an increase of 4.07% over the same period last week. From the perspective of the external market, due to the fear of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the US election affecting market confidence, various risk assets generally fell this week. Investors bought the US dollar as a hedge. The price of gold fell by nearly 5%, the largest weekly decline since March. . This week, the locked-up volume in the DeFi field continued to fluctuate at a high level. The price of Bitcoin rebounded and rose but failed to break through the pressure zone of 11,000 US dollars.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 6.01%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars, but then fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 178.578 billion yuan, a decrease from last week 11.416 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.01%. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 31.81%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 256.79%, a drop of 119.79% or 31.81% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 52.12%, the lowest was 31.75%, and the extreme value difference was 20.37 percentage points. This week, ETC has the largest increase, and the cumulative turnover rate this week has increased by 10.16% compared with last week, an increase of 1.40%.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.32%, USDT balance decreased by 0.35%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2.27554 million BTC, an increase of 0.32% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7.1255 billion USDT, a decrease of 0.35% from the same period last week; 20) It was US$15.11859 billion, an increase of 0.67% over the same period last week.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week’s Bitcoin volatility index dropped 50% from the same period last week, with an opening value of 2.52, a maximum value of 2.68, a minimum value of 1.07, and a closing value of 1.26; the Fear & Greed Index was 52 points 7 days ago, with a maximum of 47 points this week and a minimum of At 39 points, the level of greed index changed from neutral to fear, and the market sentiment tended to be cautious.

7. Futures contracts: the basis spread widens and divergences intensify, Bakkt market volume can be pulled back

From the perspective of futures contracts, this week, the market volume can be adjusted, the active trading activity has decreased, the game between the long and short sides continues, and the basis difference of contracts with different terms has expanded. This week, the total trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$508 million, a decrease of 33% from the previous week; the peak of open interest was US$12.2 million, a decrease of 9% from the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average weekly premium of OKEX contracts this week was -0.05%, with a premium down by 0.41 percentage points; the average premium for next-week contracts was 0.03%, with a premium down by 0.4 percentage points; the average premium for quarterly contracts was 1.32%, with a premium down 1.03 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 1.31%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price rose by 0.10%, and the quarterly contract price rose by 1.23%. As of the report statistics time, the 24-hour long-short ratio of BITMEX BTC / USD margin market was 50.78%:49.22%, and the long position was slightly dominant. In addition, this week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

Various risky assets generally fell this week. The fear of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the U.S. election affected market confidence. Investors bought the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Dow fell 1.75% this week, the Nasdaq rose 1.11%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.63%. The Dow and the S&P 500 fell for four consecutive weeks; COMEX gold futures fell 4.98% to $1,864.3 per ounce, a record 3 The biggest weekly drop since January; COMEX silver futures fell 15.28% to $22.985 an ounce, the biggest weekly drop in nine years. International oil prices fell across the board. NYMEX crude oil futures fell 2.6% to US$40.04/barrel for the week; cloth oil fell 2.06% to US$42.26/barrel; Weekly broad-based indexes fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.56%, the CSI 500 fell 3.60%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.14%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1686.60%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 31.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 69.12%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -3.76%, and gold rose by 44.92%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market rebounded and fell under pressure, the market trading activity decreased slightly, and investor sentiment remained cautious.At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range around US$330 billion. It fell below US$320 billion at one point, and then started a wave of rebounds, recovering the US$330 billion and US$340 billion mark one after another. It closed above US$340 billion in late trading, and the average value of the total market value was US$334.314 billion. , an increase of 4.07% over the same period last week. From the perspective of the external market, due to the fear of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the US election affecting market confidence, various risk assets generally fell this week. Investors bought the US dollar as a hedge. The price of gold fell by nearly 5%, the largest weekly decline since March. . This week, the locked-up volume in the DeFi field continued to fluctuate at a high level. The price of Bitcoin rebounded and rose but failed to break through the pressure zone of 11,000 US dollars.

From the perspective of the disk, the market trend this week is dominated by a short-term rebound but lacks continuity. The volume can quickly weaken after breaking through a resistance zone. The overall trading activity is high and lower. Bitcoin rebounded to $11,000 after the heavy chip pressure. The pressure fell back and failed to break through the previous high. There are still great uncertainties in the current external environment and the epidemic situation. Investor sentiment remains generally cautious, and the USDT premium rate remains low and volatile. Considering the heavy resistance above, there is a high probability of consolidation and retracement after a surge. Before the direction, it is necessary to gradually test the suppression of the upper track. In the short term, it may maintain a consolidation. There is a relatively strong support around $10,500 below. In addition, this week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 6.01%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 31.81%. This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 256.79%, a drop of 119.79% or 31.81% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 52.12%, the lowest was 31.75%, and the extreme value difference was 20.37 percentage points. This week, ETC has the largest increase, and the cumulative turnover rate this week has increased by 10.16% compared with last week, an increase of 1.40%.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (734.24% this week, up 10.16% or 1.40% from last week), EOS (468.07% this week, down 24.32% or 4.94% from last week) , DASH (314.97% this week, down 871.99% from last week, down 73.46%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (59.55% this week, up 0.29% from last week, up 0.50%), BTC (79.64% this week, down 24.92% from last week, down 23.83%), XRP (81.28% this week, up 0.77% from last week, up 0.96%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.32%, USDT balance decreased by 0.35%.USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range, and maintained a positive premium in late trading.The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium at the end of the session. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.00% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.124%, a minimum premium of 0.09%, and a closing premium of 0.02%. High correction, the market sentiment remains cautious this week, the USDT premium rate has retreated to a certain extent from the previous high point, and the premium level is in a relatively low range overall.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated downward, and market sentiment remained cautious.This week’s Bitcoin volatility index dropped 50% from the same period last week, with an opening value of 2.52, a maximum value of 2.68, a minimum value of 1.07, and a closing value of 1.26; the Fear & Greed Index was 52 points 7 days ago, with a maximum of 47 points this week and a minimum of At 39 points, the level of greed index changed from neutral to fear, and the market sentiment tended to be cautious.

Futures contracts: This week, the market volume may be adjusted back, the active trading activity has decreased, the long and short sides continue to play games, and the basis difference of contracts with different terms has expanded.This week, the total trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$508 million, a decrease of 33% from the previous week; the peak of open interest was US$12.2 million, a decrease of 9% from the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average weekly premium of OKEX contracts this week was -0.05%, with a premium down by 0.41 percentage points; the average premium for next-week contracts was 0.03%, with a premium down by 0.4 percentage points; the average premium for quarterly contracts was 1.32%, with a premium down 1.03 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 1.31%. This week, OKEX's weekly contract price rose by 0.10%, and the quarterly contract price rose by 1.23%. As of the report statistics time, the 24-hour long-short ratio of BITMEX BTC / USD margin market was 50.78%:49.22%, and the long position was slightly dominant. In addition, this week, Bitcoin futures once again experienced short-term pin insertions. The current overall basis of Bitcoin futures has increased. Investors are expected to pay attention to risks and reduce leverage.

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

BTC

ETC

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