Bitcoin market analysis: Can Bitcoin stabilize the situation?
In the first half of this year, we experienced "312", the halving of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin fell from $10,000 to $3,800, and then returned from $3,800 to $10,000. From May to July, the market also experienced two The calm fluctuation between 9000-10000 US dollars in monthly time.
The weak trend of the market has caused the popularity of the entire market to continue to flow out. At this time, the large foreign investment institution Grayscale Investment is constantly hoarding Bitcoin spot. Affected by this factor, by the end of July, Bitcoin broke the shackles of the price and broke through 10,000 Dollar.
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The real rising stage of Bitcoin was from July 20th to August 2nd, when it rose from $9,200 to $12,100, and from 12,100 on August 2nd to the highest point of 12,448 on August 17th, it only increased by more than $300. But it took half a month. It can be said that throughout August, the activity range of Bitcoin was between 11,000-12,000 US dollars for most of the time.
However, it is also because Bitcoin has stayed still during this period of time that it has created an environment for DeFi to explode. The high level between 11,000-12,000 US dollars has kept the entire currency market in a high state, but if it does not move at the same time, there will be no further withdrawal of funds. , Instead, idle funds flow into DeFi projects and provide fertilizer for the development of DeFi.
During the entire month of August, many DeFi projects were shining brightly. At the beginning, Compound and Balancer, the crazy Link in the middle, and the domestic public chain also exploded at the end of the first half. In the middle, Polkadot was also officially launched and its tokens Dot also showed off a little and carried out coin demolition, but was quickly suppressed by DeFi projects. YFI rose again, and the price once surpassed Bitcoin by 3-4 times. The success of Sushiswap imitating Uniswap even set off project imitation If the first half of DeFi was full of projects such as lending and mining, decentralized exchanges, oracle machines, then in the second half, it was completely decentralized exchanges. With the recent largest decentralized exchange The listing of Uniswap seems to have put an end to the madness of DeFi in recent months.
It can be seen that in just two months or so, the rhythm of DeFi has rotated very fast. It is no exaggeration to say that it is dizzying. mines, will cause a large number of miners looting.
Up to now, many projects have basically been dominated by junk projects. The price of the currency on the first day is this price, the currency price on the second day is 10% of the first day, and the fourth day is 10% of the second day. Miners are now mining basically in a state where the currency price is not worth the handling fee.
But the end of the current DeFi possibility is not a bad thing for some groups in the market. They are the so-called "old leeks". When DeFi was hot, they did not participate in the whole process, not because they did not understand, but because they wanted to understand the rules. It’s too troublesome. There are many investors in the currency circle who only trade as assistants. They don’t have so much time and energy to participate and understand the new rules.
But this is not a bad thing, because many participating investors are not participating in direct mining. Normally speaking, mining will definitely not be able to dig out those big investors who have already prepared, and they may end up losing money due to high handling fees. , Secondly, those who participate in the secondary investment market of DeFi tokens are basically based on losses. In many cases, the market is just watching the excitement, and there are still very few people who can really rest in their pockets.
There are still 100 days left in this year, which is actually not too short. It is enough for a new DeFi to reach its peak and then weaken. It is still a question of whether there will be new DeFi in the future.
But as far as we can see at present, there is still a possibility of new hot spots.
One of them is Filecoin. The popularity of Filecoin in May-June this year was comparable to that of DeFi. However, DeFi suddenly emerged later, and Filecoin lost its voice. Later, it was said that the launch was postponed to November. There is still a chance for this project to be speculated again. After all, in May and June, the speculation of cloud computing power of cloud mining machines has skyrocketed. If you don’t continue to speculate, you will lose your hands.
The other is ETH2.0, the significance of ETH2.0 needless to say, expansion is the top priority of the current ETH, whenever the chain is hot, there will be congestion, and the gas fee will also rise rapidly, which also makes ETH2 .0 has become the latest expectation of the market for Ethereum, and V God has repeatedly emphasized before that ETH2.0 will be launched by the end of this year.
Regarding the next Bitcoin, we need to pay attention to the influence of the external market. Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been greatly affected by the external market. After having this impression, the probability of being bound in the future is also very high. If there is no accident, In the future, everyone who speculates in coins may start to care about the international environment.
Going back to the market, today’s market is weaker than everyone imagined. Yesterday’s price peaked at $10,575, but today it started to fall after the opening of the market without the slightest intention to test upwards. So far, today’s decline has basically been covered. yesterday's gains.
It is relatively clear from the Bollinger Bands at the daily level. The market rose again to the middle rail yesterday and was suppressed, but there is only one step away from getting on the middle rail. It does not mean that we must re-stand on the middle rail today, but try it out The probability is still relatively high, and it is impossible to fall back directly at the opening.
In addition, notice that the MACD has also formed a sign of a dead fork near the 0 axis, and the dead fork + returned to the bottom of the Boll middle rail, which does not seem to be a good sign.
I’ve been making a lot of money recently. I’ve been shorting for a while, and I’ve been shorting for a while. I made two empty orders at 10520 yesterday. I took profit at night and gave an empty order near 10580 before going to bed. I received it perfectly when I woke up this morning. I just want to make money, and I have a profit of more than 100 pips. Recently, I only stopped the loss of one order, and the rest were taken profit, which is quite comfortable.
However, today’s market has not yet finished, and there is a chance to form a certain rebound in the evening. You can pay attention to it again. The upper pressure is still dominated by 10,600 US dollars, and the lower 10,200 US dollars is also an important intraday support.
I’ve been making a lot of money recently. I’ve been shorting for a while, and I’ve been shorting for a while. I made two empty orders at 10520 yesterday. I took profit at night and gave an empty order near 10580 before going to bed. I received it perfectly when I woke up this morning. I just want to make money, and I have a profit of more than 100 pips. Recently, I only stopped the loss of one order, and the rest were taken profit, which is quite comfortable.
