External influences fell under pressure, and market sentiment turned from neutral to fear

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-09-23 03:18

This article is about 8214 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 38th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: External influences are under pressure and the market sentiment has turned to fear
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 4.52%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets generally closed down
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.02%, USDT balance increased by 1.01%
USDT premium rate: The low range fluctuated within a narrow range, and a positive premium was maintained at the end of the day
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated downward, and market sentiment remained cautious
Futures contracts: Basis widens and divergences intensify, Bakkt daily trading volume repeatedly breaks new highs
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: External influences are under pressure and the market sentiment has turned from neutral to fear

As of the statistical time of the report (September 22, 2020), the average total market capitalization of global blockchain assets this week was US$321.242 billion, an increase of 1.76% from the same period last week; The mean is down 36.47%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -2.02%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -1.34%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is -2.84%.

This week, the broader market fell under the pressure of the external market, large, medium and small market capitalization currencies comprehensively corrected, and investor sentiment turned from neutral to fear. At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range around 340-360 billion US dollars, reaching a peak of 355.1 billion US dollars. On the evening of September 21, the market fell sharply and fell back below 326 billion US dollars, and then rebounded weakly and closed above 329 billion US dollars in late trading. The daily average value of the total market value An increase of 1.76% over the same period last week. In the external market, the Fed’s latest interest rate decision in September was in line with market expectations, but it did not make a commitment to further economic stimulus. Affected by concerns about the further deterioration of the autumn and winter epidemic in the northern hemisphere and the uncertainty of the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar was maintained on September 21. Outside of the strength, global assets generally fell, European and American stock markets fell sharply, and COMEX gold futures fell by more than 2%, hitting a new low in two months.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 4.52%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars, but then fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges was 188.476 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.93 billion yuan from last week. The decrease was 4.52%. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets generally closed down

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 376.59%, a decrease of 690.54% or 64.71% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 133.53%, the lowest was 32.96%, and the extreme value difference was 100.56 percentage points. The cumulative weekly hand rate was 724.07%, down 28.99% from last week.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.02%, USDT balance increased by 1.01%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,275,614 BTC, a decrease of 0.02% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,180.96 million USDT, an increase of 1.01% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$15.11859 billion, an increase of 6.67% over the same period last week.

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week’s Bitcoin Volatility Index decreased by 24.12% compared with the same period last week. The opening value was 1.99, the highest value was 2.34, the lowest value was 1.26, and the closing value was 1.51. 43 points, with the price correction of Bitcoin on Monday, the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 39 points, the level of panic has increased slightly, the level has changed from neutral to fear, and the market sentiment has become more cautious.

7. Futures contracts: The basis difference widens and the divergence intensifies, Bakkt's daily trading volume repeatedly breaks new highs

From the perspective of futures contracts, the market volume can continue to expand this week, and the basis difference of contracts with different durations has expanded.This week, Bakkt's daily trading volume repeatedly broke new highs, with a transaction value exceeding US$205 million. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.36%, and the premium has decreased by 0.34 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.48%, and the premium has decreased by 0.19 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has been 2.35%, and the premium has increased by 1.07% percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.30%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract price rose by 0.05%, and the quarterly contract’s latest premium rose by 2.73%. As of the time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 47.18%:52.82%, and the short position was slightly dominant. This week, the price of the forward contract has fallen back, and investor sentiment has returned to caution. The long and short sides continue to play games. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize the platform, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

8. Macro perspective: Different risk asset yields, U.S. stocks fall, gold prices rise

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

The yields of various risky assets diverged this week. The latest U.S. interest rate decision was in line with market expectations. U.S. stocks fell for three consecutive weeks, while Bitcoin and gold prices rose.This Thursday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the latest interest rate resolution, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%-0.25%, keeping the excess reserve ratio (IOER) at 0.1%, and keeping the discount rate at 0.25% unchanged, in line with market expectations, Powell did not give a commitment to further economic stimulus. In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes have fallen for three consecutive weeks this week. JPMorgan warned that U.S. stocks may usher in a large-scale sell-off. This week, the Nasdaq rose -0.55% to 10,793.28 points; The S&P 500 index rose -0.64% weekly to 3319.47 points; COMEX gold futures rose 0.73% weekly to US$1957.10/oz; international oil prices collectively rose this week, with Brent crude oil up 9.40% weekly to US$43.52/barrel ; In the domestic stock market, this week's undervalued plate groups made efforts, and A shares rebounded strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.38% to 3338.09 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33% to 13245.09 points; the ChiNext Index rose 2.34 %, at 2596.08 points.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1615.69%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 32.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 67.18%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -0.83%, and gold rose by 49.05%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market was under pressure and fell under the influence of the external market. The currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations were fully corrected, and investor sentiment turned from neutral to fear.At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a narrow range around 340-360 billion US dollars, reaching a peak of 355.1 billion US dollars. On the evening of September 21, the market fell sharply and fell back below 326 billion US dollars, and then rebounded weakly and closed above 329 billion US dollars in late trading. The daily average value of the total market value An increase of 1.76% over the same period last week. In the external market, the Fed’s latest interest rate decision in September was in line with market expectations, but it did not make a commitment to further economic stimulus. Affected by concerns about the further deterioration of the autumn and winter epidemic in the northern hemisphere and the uncertainty of the U.S. election, the U.S. dollar was maintained on September 21. Outside of the strength, global assets generally fell, European and American stock markets fell sharply, and COMEX gold futures fell by more than 2%, hitting a new low in two months.

This week, the price of Bitcoin maintained an upward trend in the early stage. After a short-term attack on the $11,000 mark on Saturday, it failed to stabilize. On September 21, due to external influences, the waterfall fell and gave up all the gains. After falling below the strong support range of 10,500, it continued to explore 10,300 US dollars, closing above 10,400 US dollars in late trading. From the perspective of the market, the current price is highly correlated with the external market, and the price has not yet stabilized after falling. Although the risk of panic has been released to a large extent, the current bottom-hunting funds have not yet obviously formed a bottom for the currency price. Currently, investors The sentiment has changed from neutral to fear, the demand for peripheral capital liquidity is still tightening, and the pressure on the upper bargaining chip is obviously under pressure. Considering the current external environment is relatively uncertain, the bottom of the overseas market has not yet been confirmed, and the market sentiment is relatively fragile. The market is blocked, and in the short term, the weak adjustment may continue to fluctuate around $10,200. It is not recommended to buy bottoms when the external market has not stabilized. At the same time, the current volatility of Bitcoin is increasing. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin insertion and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 4.52%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets generally closed down.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 376.59%, a decrease of 690.54% or 64.71% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 133.53%, the lowest was 32.96%, and the extreme value difference was 100.56 percentage points. The cumulative weekly hand rate was 724.07%, down 28.99% from last week.

The top three in this week’s cumulative turnover rate are DASH (1186.97% this week, down 6282.94% or 84.11% from last week), ETC (724.07% this week, down 295.60% or 28.99% from last week) , EOS (492.39% this week, down 101.12% from last week, down 17.04%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (59.26% this week, down 1.28% from last week, down 2.12%), XRP (80.51% this week, down 4.51% from last week, down 5.30%), BTC (104.56% this week, down 33.69% from last week, down 24.37%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.02%, USDT balance increased by 1.01%.This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,275,614 BTC, a decrease of 0.02% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,180.96 million USDT, an increase of 1.01% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$15.11859 billion, an increase of 6.67% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: The low range fluctuated within a narrow range, and a positive premium was maintained in late trading.Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated downward, and market sentiment remained cautious.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated downward, and market sentiment remained cautious.This week’s Bitcoin Volatility Index decreased by 24.12% compared with the same period last week. The opening value was 1.99, the highest value was 2.34, the lowest value was 1.26, and the closing value was 1.51. 43 points, with the price correction of Bitcoin on Monday, the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 39 points, the level of panic has increased slightly, the level has changed from neutral to fear, and the market sentiment has become more cautious.

Futures contracts: The market volume can continue to increase this week, and the basis of contracts with different terms has expanded.This week, Bakkt's daily trading volume repeatedly broke new highs, with a transaction value exceeding US$205 million. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.36%, and the premium has decreased by 0.34 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.48%, and the premium has decreased by 0.19 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has been 2.35%, and the premium has increased by 1.07% percentage points; the average premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.30%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract price rose by 0.05%, and the quarterly contract’s latest premium rose by 2.73%. As of the time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 47.18%:52.82%, and the short position was slightly dominant. This week, the price of the forward contract has fallen back, and investor sentiment has returned to caution. The long and short sides continue to play games. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize the platform, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Macro perspective: This week, the yields of various risky assets diverged. The latest U.S. interest rate resolution was in line with market expectations. U.S. stocks fell for three consecutive weeks, while Bitcoin and gold prices rose.Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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