Shrinkage rebounded upward, market sentiment turned neutral

特邀专栏作者

2020-09-16 07:23

This article is about 8285 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

This week, the average value of the total market capitalization of global blockchain assets was US$336.587 billion, an increase of 0.31% from the same period last week.

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This week, the average value of the total market capitalization of global blockchain assets was US$336.587 billion, an increase of 0.31% from the same period last week.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 37th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

This week's market trend: Shrinkage rebounds upward, market sentiment turns neutral

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 22.19%

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 547.99%

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance increased by 37.99%

USDT premium rate: within a narrow range and a slight rebound, the premium rate remains at par

Bitcoin Volatility Index: Volatility Index Shocks Down, Market Sentiment Turns Neutral

Futures contracts: The divergence between long and short positions intensified as prices fell, and the total amount of open interest fell

Details of this report:

Summarize

Details of this report:

1. This week’s market trend: Shrinkage rebounds upwards and falls back, market sentiment turns neutral

As of the statistical time of the report (September 15, 2020), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$336.587 billion, an increase of 0.31% from the same period last week; The average was up 32.9%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 0.21%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -0.76%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 0.93%.

This week, the market as a whole shrank and rebounded upwards, market trading activity dropped slightly, and investor sentiment turned neutral. At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a range of 320-330 billion US dollars, and then the market center gradually moved up, reaching a maximum of 350.7 billion US dollars. After a short period of sideways trading around 350 billion US dollars, it closed above 340 billion US dollars in late trading. It gained 0.31% last week. In terms of the external market, the overall performance of the global market was sluggish this week. The U.S. stock market had its worst weekly performance in recent times.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 22.19%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars, but then fluctuated and retreated, hovering in the range of 10,000 US dollars to 11,000 US dollars. The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 238.471 billion Yuan, a decrease of 68.019 billion yuan or 22.19% from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 547.99%

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 889.26%, an increase of 547.99% or 160.57% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 236.50%, the lowest was 44.57%, and the extreme value difference was 191.92 percentage points. The hand rate ranked first, up 1866.49% from last week, and the trading volume increased rapidly starting from Thursday, considering the existence of exchange brushing behavior.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance increased by 37.99%

The BTC wallet balance on the exchange this week was 2,276,991 BTC, an increase of 0.38% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,108.56 million USDT, an increase of 29.71% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) USD 14.17383 billion.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and dropped, down 65.49% from the same period last week; the opening value was 3.39, the highest value was 4.02, the lowest value was 1.17, and the closing value was 1.84; the fear & greed index was 41 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 41 points , the lowest was 38 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 39 points, down 2 points from 41 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin remained in consolidation, the market sentiment remained cautious and turned neutral in late trading.

7. Futures contracts: The divergence between long and short positions has intensified as prices have fallen, and the total amount of open contracts has fallen

From the perspective of futures contracts, contracts with different durations generally maintained a premium this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continued to play games. The premium turned into a discount at the end of the day. The total amount of open contracts this week has decreased. This week, the total trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$305 million, a decrease of 32% from the previous week; the peak of open interest was US$13.1 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.24%, with a premium of 0.10 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.23%, with a premium of 0.02 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 0.52%, with a premium of 0.01 percent; BitMEX perpetual contract average holy water 0.20%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract prices remain at a discount, with the latest discount of 0.06%; the latest discount of quarterly contracts is 0.78%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.15%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 53.28%:46.72%, with long positions slightly dominant. This week, the price of forward contracts fluctuated in a wide range, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the high price correction, the gap between long and short has intensified. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, choose platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime. .

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

This week, various risk assets generally fell. The overall performance of the global market was sluggish this week. In terms of U.S. stocks, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed down this week; the Nasdaq rose -4.06% for the week to 10853.55 points; the Dow rose -1.66% for the week to 27665.64 points; The worst weekly performance since March, while the S&P index has the worst weekly performance since June; COMEX gold futures rose 0.70% on the week to $1948.10 an ounce; in terms of international oil prices, Brent crude oil this week Up -6.07% to US$39.78/barrel; domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose -2.83% this week to 3260.35 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose -5.23% to 12942.95 points; the ChiNext Index rose -7.16 %, reported 2536.62 points, falling for two weeks in a row; this week, the northbound funds moved in and out quickly, with a cumulative net sale of 583 million yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market blockchain concept stocks rose.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1615.69%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, other asset yields were divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 33.73%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 68.01%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by -3.66%, and gold rose by 46.68%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

Market trend: This week, the market as a whole shrank and rebounded upwards, market trading activity dropped slightly, and investor sentiment turned neutral.At the beginning of the week, the market maintained a range of 320-330 billion US dollars, and then the market center gradually moved up, reaching a maximum of 350.7 billion US dollars. After a short period of sideways trading around 350 billion US dollars, it closed above 340 billion US dollars in late trading. It gained 0.31% last week. In terms of the external market, the overall performance of the global market was sluggish this week. The U.S. stock market had its worst weekly performance in recent times.

This week, the price of Bitcoin maintained a shrinking consolidation in the early stage, and then increased in volume at the end of the day. After rebounding above 10,500 US dollars, it continued to break through the upper edge of the consolidation zone. The highest breakthrough was 10,900 US dollars. Short-term consolidation near the U.S. dollar; From the perspective of the disk, the rebound potential of this round is obviously stronger than the previous round, but the effectiveness of the current breakthrough has not yet been verified. If it falls below the support of 10,650 U.S. dollars in the short term, the probability of continuation of the consolidation is high, and the trend may revisit the triangle area Downside; the total amount of USDT in circulation continued to increase during the same period, the balance of USDT on the exchange increased significantly, the USDT premium rate basically maintained a positive premium range, and there was a certain level of support for the price; however, the current external market is generally weak, and this week's data shows that the Defi boom has a negative impact on the market. The off-site new user attraction is limited. The current market is mainly still playing games among existing users. Investor sentiment remains cautious in general. The upper part is under obvious pressure around $11,000. The probability of a unilateral market is low. Chasing higher needs to be cautious, and it may remain in the short term Changing hands in a wide range of shocks can open positions and buy at low prices; at the same time, the probability of reverse fluctuations is high before the market determines its direction. It is hoped that futures investors can reasonably control leverage multiples to prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 22.19%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 547.99%.The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated to 889.26%, an increase of 547.99% or 160.57% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 236.50%, the lowest was 44.57%, and the extreme value difference was 191.92 percentage points. The hand rate ranked first, up 1866.49% from last week, and the trading volume increased rapidly starting from Thursday, considering the existence of exchange brushing behavior.

The top three in this week's cumulative turnover rate are DASH (5608.34% this week, up 5323.14% from last week, an increase of 1866.49%), ETC (1013.64% this week, up 249.52% from last week, an increase of 32.65%) , EOS (631.86% this week, down 205.43% and 24.54% from last week); the last three in cumulative turnover rate are XLM (64.38% this week, down 31.60% and 32.92% from last week), XRP (90.50% this week, down 10.99% from last week, down 10.83%), BTC (138.64% this week, up 37.35% from last week, up 36.87%).

Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 0.38%, USDT balance increased by 29.71%.The BTC wallet balance on the exchange this week was 2,276,991 BTC, an increase of 0.38% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 7,108.56 million USDT, an increase of 29.71% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC- 20) It was US$14.17383 billion, an increase of 39.6% over the same period last week.

USDT premium rate: within a narrow range and slightly rebounded, the premium rate basically remained at par.This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range and rose slightly, maintaining parity at the end of the session. The current premium rate is still in a relatively reasonable range; the USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a discount of 0.02% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.10% and a minimum premium of -0.04 %, the closing price remained par; as the market maintained a consolidation trend, the recent USDT premium rate fluctuated slightly around the discount-premium watershed.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated and fell, and market sentiment turned neutral.This week, the Bitcoin volatility index fluctuated and dropped, down 65.49% from the same period last week; the opening value was 3.39, the highest value was 4.02, the lowest value was 1.17, and the closing value was 1.84; the fear & greed index was 41 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 41 points , the lowest point is 38 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 39 points, which is 2 points lower than the 41 points in the same period last week.

Futures contracts: Contracts of different durations generally maintained a premium this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continued to play games. The premium turned into a discount at the end of the day. The total amount of open contracts this week has decreased.This week, the total trading volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$305 million, a decrease of 32% from the previous week; the peak of open interest was US$13.1 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.24%, with a premium of 0.10 percentage points; the average premium of next-week contracts is 0.23%, with a premium of 0.02 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts is 0.52%, with a premium of 0.01 percent; BitMEX perpetual contract average holy water 0.20%. This week, OKEX’s weekly contract prices remain at a discount, with the latest discount of 0.06%; the latest discount of quarterly contracts is 0.78%; the latest discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.15%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 53.28%:46.72%, with long positions slightly dominant. This week, the price of forward contracts fluctuated in a wide range, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the high price correction, the gap between long and short has intensified. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, choose platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime. .

Macro perspective: Various risk assets generally fell this week. The overall performance of the global market was sluggish this week.Price correction risk

risk warning

Price correction risk

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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