Heavy volume shock bottoms out, the short-term market enters a recovery period

TokenMania

特邀专栏作者

2020-09-08 12:55

This article is about 8203 words, reading the full article takes about 12 minutes

Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2020.

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Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2020.

Blockchain secondary market report for the 36th week of 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:

The trend of the market this week: the bottom of heavy volume shocks, the short-term market has entered a recovery period
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 48.49%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 50.53%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.76%
USDT premium rate: The premium rate rose slightly, and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated and rose, and market sentiment returned to caution
Futures contracts: the price of the futures market is volatile, and a large number of long funds are liquidated
Details of this report:
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: the bottom of heavy volume shocks, the short-term market has entered a recovery period

As of the statistical time of the report (September 8, 2020), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$357.81 billion, a decrease of 1.73% from the same period last week; The average was up 52.3%.

As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is -8.12%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is -9.84%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is -10.23%.

This week, the market fell in heavy volume, and the currencies with large, medium and small market capitalizations comprehensively corrected. Investor sentiment returned to caution, and the short-term market entered a recovery period. At the beginning of the week, the market remained in the range of 370-380 billion US dollars. At the beginning of Thursday, the market quickly plunged below 340 billion US dollars. The long funds exploded sharply, rebounding slightly in late trading to close above $330 billion, a drop of more than 10% from the same period last week. In terms of the external market, various risk assets generally fell this week. The U.S. stock market once hit the largest single-day drop since June, ending the five-week winning streak. The price of gold fell by more than 2%.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

2. Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges rose by 48.49%

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; after several weeks of range adjustment, the BTC price broke through 12,000 US dollars, but then slightly fluctuated and retreated, hovering in the range of 11,000 US dollars to 12,000 US dollars. The average daily trading volume of the week was 306.843 billion yuan, an increase of 100.204 billion yuan from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 2.63% to 41.3075 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 21.56% to 8.3996 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 19.84% to 1610.10 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 36.48629 million yuan; A decrease of 16.56% in the previous week.

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to: Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

3. Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets increased by 50.53%

This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 341.27%, an increase of 114.56% or 50.53% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 73.98%, the lowest was 31.69%, and the extreme value difference was 42.29 percentage points. This week, EOS has the highest turnover rate, up 75.99% from last week.

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 0.76%

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,268,353 BTC, a decrease of 0.76% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 5,480.38 million USDT. The current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 10.15334 billion USD.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

Source: TokenMania

[Note] Exchange wallet balance is comprehensive data covering multiple mainstream exchanges such as Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX, etc.

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Source: Tradingview, TokenMania

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin volatility index rose sharply, up 270.49% from the same period last week; the opening value was 1.42, the highest value was 5.68, the lowest value was 1.42, and the closing value was 4.52; the fear & greed index was 75 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 83 points , the lowest was 40 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 41 points, down 34 points from 75 points in the same period last week. With the correction of the market, the market sentiment returned to caution.

7. Futures contracts: the price of the futures market is volatile, and a large number of long funds are liquidated

From the perspective of futures contracts, the prices of contracts with different durations have dropped sharply this week, and a large number of long funds have been liquidated. The open interest of Bitcoin futures has experienced the largest single-day drop in five months.With the sharp correction of bitcoin prices this week, the open interest of bitcoin futures saw the largest one-day drop in five months, and the total open interest of bitcoin decreased by 653 million US dollars; the total transaction volume of Bakkt bitcoin monthly futures this week was 5.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 48% from the previous week, and a 27% decrease from the peak of the open interest volume compared to the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.14%, and the premium has decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.25%, and the premium has decreased by 0.40 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has decreased by 0.51%, and the premium has decreased 0.70 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.10%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract discount is 0.03%; next week’s contract price latest discount is 0.01%; quarterly contract latest discount is 0.09%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 48.53%:51.47%, and the short position was slightly dominant. The price of the futures market is volatile this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continue to play games. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize the platform, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

8. Macro perspective: Various risk assets generally fell, gold and Bitcoin prices corrected

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset. For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

This week, various risk assets generally fell, U.S. stocks ended their five-week winning streak, capital inflows to the north slowed down, and Bitcoin and gold prices fell. Affected by the uncertainties brought about by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the uncertain outlook of the U.S. epidemic situation, and doubts about whether to introduce further fiscal stimulus measures, the three major U.S. stock indexes all retreated rapidly this week. U.S. stocks fell sharply on September 3 , The Nasdaq fell more than 5% at one point, and the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded the largest one-day drop since June. This week, the Nasdaq rose -3.27% to 11313.13 points; the Dow rose -1.82% to 28133.31 points; the S&P 500 The index rose -2.31% weekly to 3426.96 points. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended their five-week winning streak; COMEX gold futures fell 2.06% weekly to $1940.9 an ounce; Brent crude oil fell 7.55% weekly to $42.35 /barrel; in the domestic stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.42% this week, ending five consecutive weeks of gains, at 3288.06 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.4%, at 13187.68 points; Weekly fell 2.86% to 24695.45 points. Northbound funds were all net sold in 5 trading days this week, with a cumulative net sale of 22.262 billion yuan.

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMani

a Comparing the dynamic rate of return of various assets in the past three years, the performance of Bitcoin is thriving. In the past three years, the dynamic rate of return of Bitcoin is 1534.43%, ranking first among all types of assets, and there is a large gap with the rate of return of other assets. Except for digital currencies, the performance of other asset yields was divided. U.S. stocks performed relatively well. The S&P 500 Index rose by 38.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 76.95%. In addition, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.89%, and gold rose by 44.46%.

Source: Straight Flush, TokenMania

9. Summary

9. Summary

The trend of the market: This week, the market has experienced a heavy volume decline, large, medium and small market capitalization currencies have comprehensively corrected, investor sentiment has returned to caution, and the short-term market has entered a recovery period.At the beginning of the week, the market remained in the range of 370-380 billion US dollars. At the beginning of Thursday, the market quickly plunged below 340 billion US dollars. The long funds exploded sharply, rebounding slightly in late trading to close above $330 billion, a drop of more than 10% from the same period last week. In terms of the external market, various risk assets generally fell this week. The U.S. stock market once hit the largest single-day drop since June, ending the five-week winning streak. The price of gold fell by more than 2%.

This week, Bitcoin fell below $11,000 and $10,000, hitting a new low in nearly a month. After weak consolidation in the bottom range, the price rebounded above $10,000 in late trading. From the perspective of the market, this week, the relative highs of mainstream currencies have all retreated. After the large-scale decline of Bitcoin, the short-term trend pattern has been damaged to a certain extent, and the market sentiment has turned from greed to fear. (TVL) saw a sharp correction for the first time since April, falling from a high of US$9.5 billion on September 2 to US$7.5 billion on September 6, and rebounded above US$8 billion in late trading; subject to the rising risk aversion sentiment in the market, more Many funds are in a wait-and-see situation, and the probability of new funds entering the market is low. Considering that the current market has not yet stabilized, the external market trend is weak, and investor sentiment is relatively fragile. It is expected that the price will be difficult to reverse in the short term, but there is a certain support at the $10,000 point. Those with heavy positions can seize the short-term rebound and gradually reduce their positions, and maintain capital reserves until the situation becomes clear. At the same time, the current price volatility has greatly increased. It is recommended that investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin insertion and platform downtime.

Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges increased by 48.49%.The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 7.71% to 40.25 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 24.65% to 10.716 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 9.35% to 1,343.50 billion bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 44129.04VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 30.44472 million yuan; A decrease of 12.90% in the previous week.

Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets rose by 50.53%.This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 341.27%, an increase of 114.56% or 50.53% compared with last week; the highest turnover rate was 73.98%, the lowest was 31.69%, and the extreme value difference was 42.29 percentage points. This week, EOS has the highest turnover rate, up 75.99% from last week.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are EOS (837.30% this week, up 361.54% or 75.99% from last week), ETC (764.12% this week, up 212.22% or 38.45% from last week) , LTC (536.75% this week, up 121.23% from last week, up 29.18%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (95.98% this week, up 26.29% from last week, up 37.73%), BTC (101.29% this week, up 31.46% from last week, up 45.05%), XRP (101.49% this week, up 31.42% from last week, up 44.83%).

Exchange wallet balance:This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,268,353 BTC, a decrease of 0.76% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 5,480.38 million USDT. The current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, TRC-20) is 10.15334 billion USD.

USDT premium rate: The premium rate rose slightly and remained positive in late trading.This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range and rose slightly, maintaining a positive premium in late trading. The current premium rate is still in a relatively reasonable range as a whole. The USDT/USD trading pair on the Kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.02% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.15%, a minimum premium of -0.04%, and a closing premium of 0.02%. With the correction of BTC prices, the USDT premium rate has increased recently.

Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fluctuated and rose, and market sentiment returned to caution.This week, the Bitcoin volatility index rose sharply, up 270.49% from the same period last week; the opening value was 1.42, the highest value was 5.68, the lowest value was 1.42, and the closing value was 4.52; the fear & greed index was 75 points 7 days ago, and the highest value this week was 83 points , the lowest was 40 points, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index was 41 points, down 34 points from 75 points in the same period last week. With the correction of the market, the market sentiment returned to caution.

Futures contracts: This week, the prices of contracts with different durations have dropped sharply, and a large number of long funds have been liquidated. The open interest of Bitcoin futures has experienced the largest single-day drop in five months.With the sharp correction of bitcoin prices this week, the open interest of bitcoin futures saw the largest one-day drop in five months, and the total open interest of bitcoin decreased by 653 million US dollars; the total transaction volume of Bakkt bitcoin monthly futures this week was 5.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 48% from the previous week, and a 27% decrease from the peak of the open interest volume compared to the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.14%, and the premium has decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the average premium of the next week’s contracts has been 0.25%, and the premium has decreased by 0.40 percentage points; the average premium of quarterly contracts has decreased by 0.51%, and the premium has decreased 0.70 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.10%. This week, OKEX’s latest weekly contract discount is 0.03%; next week’s contract price latest discount is 0.01%; quarterly contract latest discount is 0.09%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 48.53%:51.47%, and the short position was slightly dominant. The price of the futures market is volatile this week. After the high price correction, the long and short sides continue to play games. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control their positions, optimize the platform, and prevent liquidation caused by pin pullbacks and platform downtime.

Macro perspective: Various risk assets generally fell this week, U.S. stocks ended their five-week winning streak, capital inflows to the north slowed down, and Bitcoin and gold prices fell.Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

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