Shrinkage and consolidation box shock, market sentiment remains greedy

Blockchain secondary market report for the 35th week of 2020

August 24, 2020 - August 31, 2020

Highlights of this report:

Highlights of this report:
This week's market trend: Shrinking consolidation and shocks, market sentiment remains greedy
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 25.91%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 19.15%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 4.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.54%
USDT premium rate: within a narrow range, maintaining a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Slightly Down, Sentiment Remains Greedy
Summarize
Summarize

Details of this report:

1. The trend of the market this week: Shrinking consolidation and oscillating, the market sentiment remains greedyThis week, the market fluctuated in a wide range, and the market turnover can decline, and investors remain greedy.

At the beginning of the week, the market started to pull back slightly from around US$370 billion. It fell below the US$350 billion mark twice during the session and then rebounded; the market price gradually moved up from Friday, and it rose above US$370 billion in late trading. The daily average value of the total market value was higher than last week down 2.37%. In the external market, various risk assets generally rose this week. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that the Fed will allow inflation to exceed the 2% target for a period of time; rising inflation expectations may benefit gold and Bitcoin in the long run. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the price of gold reversed its decline and rose slightly by more than 1%, the first rise in three weeks.

Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges

Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania

From a longer-term perspective, from the beginning of 2020 to the end of February, the market is positive under the influence of production reduction expectations, and the volume can be enlarged simultaneously; in March, the epidemic spread globally, and the global capital market experienced large fluctuations and panicky declines. Encrypted assets were also hit hard, with a daily trading volume of up to 400 billion yuan; as the global multi-national policies continued to exert force, global assets gradually bottomed out and stabilized under strong stimulus, global risk appetite gradually recovered, and there were obvious signs of bottom-buying funds in the encrypted market. After the panic decline ended, the trading volume of the nine major exchanges fell below 200 billion yuan; the market volume and price increased before the halving of Bitcoin, but the market reaction was flat for a period of time after the completion of the halving, and the volatility narrowed. The range fluctuated, and the trading volume showed a downward trend; the average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges this week was 207.358 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.91% from last week. Considering the current trading volume behavior in major exchanges, the actual transaction data may be lower than the statistical data.

Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania

[Note]: The nine major exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi, OKEX, CoinBase, Poloniex, Bitmex, Bittrex, Bitfinex, Bithumb

Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week

Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (551.90% this week, down 50.94% or 8.45% from last week), EOS (475.76% this week, down 223.80% or 31.99% from last week) , LTC (415.52% this week, down 131.78% from last week, down 24.08%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (69.68% this week, down 15.71% from last week, down 18.40%), BTC (69.83% this week, down 4.74% from last week, down 6.36%), XRP (70.08% this week, down 37.44% from last week, down 34.82%).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).

4. Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 4.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.54%。

The BTC wallet balance on the exchange this week was 2,268,353 BTC, a decrease of 4.67% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 3.9903 billion USDT, an increase of 2.54% from the same period last week; the current total USDT circulation (including Omni, ERC-20, 20) It was US$13.297 billion, an increase of 3.77% over the same period last week

Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend

Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange

Source: TokenMania

Source: TokenMania

5. USDT premium rate: within a narrow range, maintaining a positive premium in late trading

The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.

Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price

The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The current premium rate is still in a relatively reasonable range as a whole. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.03% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.16%, a minimum premium of -0.04%, and a closing premium of 0.03%. The overall rate fell slightly in the range.

[Note] When the USDT discount premium index is 100, it means USDT parity, if the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium, and if it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

6. Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index fell slightly, and the market sentiment remained greedy

Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.

Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level

Source: BitMEX, TokenMania

Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index

Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index closed down slightly, down 24.07% from the same period last week; the opening value was 1.62, the highest value was 2.46, the lowest value was 1.09, the closing value was 1.23, and the closing value was down 24.07% from the same period last week; Fear & Greed Index 7 It was 76 points a few days ago, the highest point this week was 79 points, and the lowest point was 74 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index is 75 points, which is 1 point lower than 76 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin remains high, the market remains greedy.

7. Futures contracts: The long and short sides continue to play games, and the forward futures maintain a premiumFrom the perspective of futures contracts, the current price fluctuations in this cycle are relatively large, and contracts with different durations basically maintain a state of premium. The long and short sides continue to play games, and the market volume can be slightly enlarged.

Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.

Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania

[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is calculated based on BitMEX's BXBT spot data

From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.

For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.Various risk assets generally rose this week. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher. Bitcoin and gold prices fell, and gold prices reversed their decline and rose slightly.

Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week

Source: TokenMania

Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years

Source: TokenMania

Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic, and Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction; the Bitcoin market has recently recovered, and prices have risen again. In the long run, digital currencies are relatively low in valuation. Digital currency deserves some allocation as an alternative asset.

9. SummaryMarket trend: This week the market fluctuated in a wide range, the market turnover can decline, and investors remain greedy.

At the beginning of the week, the market started to pull back slightly from around US$370 billion. It fell below the US$350 billion mark twice during the session and then rebounded; the market price gradually moved up from Friday, and it rose above US$370 billion in late trading. The daily average value of the total market value was higher than last week down 2.37%. In the external market, various risk assets generally rose this week. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out that the Fed will allow inflation to exceed the 2% target for a period of time; rising inflation expectations may benefit gold and Bitcoin in the long run. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, and the price of gold reversed its decline and rose slightly by more than 1%, the first rise in three weeks.

This week, the price of Bitcoin consolidated in a wide range and reproduced a U-shaped trend. At the beginning of the week, it started a callback from above 11,700 US dollars, and the lowest touched 11,200 US dollars. . From the perspective of the disk, the current market continues to be adjusted at a high level. During the same period, the total amount of USDT in circulation increased by more than 3.7% this week, and the USDT balance on the exchange increased by more than 2.5%. The USDT premium rate remained in the positive premium range. The activity decreased slightly, but still maintained above the key point of 11,200 US dollars, and rebounded again in the late trading. The Defi market promoted the continuous upward trend of mainstream currency prices, and attracted some new external capital inflows while increasing lock-ups. Investors The overall mood is positive, and there is some support for the current price; it is expected to maintain a high level of volatility and change hands. In the case of the overall stabilization of the external market, it may be considered to continue the range-bound operation of selling high and buying low. risk.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges decreased by 25.91%.

The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 1,451.505 billion yuan, a decrease of 507.503 billion yuan or 25.91% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 207.358 billion yuan, a decrease from last week 72.500 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.91%; from the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges are Huobi (40.63%), Binance (27.10%), OKEX (24.55%), the top three exchanges The trading volume accounted for 92.27% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the top three accounted for an increase of 0.43% compared with last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 237.519 billion yuan, a drop of 28.71%, and Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week Compared with last week, the volume decreased by 162.693 billion yuan, or 29.26%, and the cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week decreased by 59.723 billion yuan, or 14.36% compared with last week.

The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 1.65% to 40.467 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 28.66% to 8.007 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume increased by 15.56% to 1,582.52 billion Bolivars. Based on the conversion ratio between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 47331.75VES), the off-site BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 33.43457 million yuan; An increase of 7.74% in the previous week.Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 19.15%.

The turnover rate of the top ten digital assets this week accumulated 226.71%, a decrease of 53.69% or 19.15% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 37.85%, the lowest was 27.94%, and the extreme value difference was 9.91 percentage points. Hand rate topped the list, down 8.45% from last week.

The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (551.90% this week, down 50.94% or 8.45% from last week), EOS (475.76% this week, down 223.80% or 31.99% from last week) , LTC (415.52% this week, down 131.78% from last week, down 24.08%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are XLM (69.68% this week, down 15.71% from last week, down 18.40%), BTC (69.83% this week, down 4.74% from last week, down 6.36%), XRP (70.08% this week, down 37.44% from last week, down 34.82%).Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance decreased by 4.67%, USDT balance increased by 2.54%.

This week, the BTC wallet balance on the exchange was 2,268,353 BTC, a decrease of 4.67% from the same period last week; the USDT balance on the exchange was 3,990.53 million USDT, an increase of 2.54% from the same period last week; 20) It was US$13.29774 billion, an increase of 3.77% over the same period last week.USDT premium rate: within a narrow range, maintaining a positive premium in late trading.

The USDT premium rate fluctuated within a narrow range this week, and maintained a positive premium in late trading. The current premium rate is still in a relatively reasonable range as a whole. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.03% this week, with a maximum premium of 0.16%, a minimum premium of -0.04%, and a closing premium of 0.03%. The overall rate fell slightly in the range.Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index is down slightly, and the market sentiment remains greedy.

This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index closed down slightly, down 24.07% from the same period last week; the opening value was 1.62, the highest value was 2.46, the lowest value was 1.09, the closing value was 1.23, and the closing value was down 24.07% from the same period last week; Fear & Greed Index 7 It was 76 points a few days ago, the highest point this week was 79 points, and the lowest point was 74 points. The latest point of the fear & greed index is 75 points, which is 1 point lower than 76 points in the same period last week. As the price of Bitcoin remains high, the market remains greedy.Futures contracts: The current price fluctuations in this cycle are relatively large, and contracts with different durations basically maintain a state of premium. The long and short sides continue to play games, and the market volume can be slightly enlarged

. This week, the total transaction volume of Bakkt Bitcoin monthly futures was US$540 million, an increase of 48% from the previous week; the peak of open interest was US$12.3 million, a decrease of 27% from the previous week. From the perspective of term structure, the average premium of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week is 0.39%, with a premium down 0.02 percentage points; the average premium for next-week contracts is 0.65%, with a premium down 0.10 percentage points; the average premium for quarterly contracts is 1.21%, with a premium down 0.74 percentage points; the average discount of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.00%. From the perspective of the term structure, the latest price premium of OKEX’s weekly contract this week is 0.52%; the latest price premium of the next week’s contract price is 0.82%; As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio in the BITMEX BTC/USD margin market was 49.93%: 50.07%, and the short position was slightly dominant. On the whole, the price of the forward contract this week remained high and fluctuated in the range of 11,000-12,000, the market sentiment remained greedy, and the long and short sides continued to play games, making it difficult to choose a direction in the short term. It is recommended that futures investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent pin pullbacks Liquidation caused by platform downtime and other reasons.The risk of further spread of the epidemic

risk warning

Price correction risk

Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations

Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations

The risk of further spread of the epidemic

Bitcoin contract price fluctuations

BTC

ETC

交易所