CPB data shows that the import and export trade volume of major economies in the world has declined significantly, and China has become the only bright spot
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Data source: Netherlands Economic Planning Department World Trade Monitor Index - ExportsData presentation:
Companion data
Data source: Netherlands Economic Planning Department World Trade Monitor Index - Imports
Data Presentation: Companion Customer Data
According to the world import and export trade data as of April 2020 released by the Dutch Department of Economic Planning at the end of June, the total import and export volume of the world's major economies has declined significantly under the continuous impact of the epidemic, and the monthly total decline is compared with that before the impact of the epidemic. The peak value is on the order of 20%. The trade contraction of this magnitude is similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, but the rate of decline is faster. After the sharp decline in February, the short-term momentum of emerging economies in March did not continue but accelerated downward. Economists are generally worried that the impact of the epidemic on the real economy may continue in the future and will not get out of the trough soon. Therefore, it is difficult for the world capital market, which is surging with "hot money", to be immune to it.
This means that in the next few months, the volatility of cross-category investment markets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange will be relatively high. The "V"-shaped reversal expectation has been reflected in the high price. If the "V"-shaped "disillusioned" market is blindly optimistic, the pessimistic release risk is self-evident.
