Watch: Bitcoin Halving's Short-Term Impact on Mining

特邀专栏作者

2020-05-20 06:52

This article is about 2677 words, reading the full article takes about 4 minutes

Within one month after the halving, if the currency price does not fluctuate much, the estimated difficulty of Bitcoin mining will be reduced by about 16%, and the mining income will increase by about 20%. In the future, a more exciting battle of computi

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For bitcoin miners,Bitcoin block reward halved for third time(hereinafter referred to as"Halved") is a very significant, even fatal blow to some miners. However, if we can figure out the imminent impact of this halving on the mining field and follow the trend, we may find a good opportunity behind this crisis.

Halving has a huge impact on mining revenue. After halving, mining machines with power consumption above 85W/T are on the verge of shutting down

At 19:23 on May 11, 2020 (UTC time, that isMay 12, 03:23 Beijing time), with bitcoin630000thimage description6.25BTC。

This means that the mining revenue of all Bitcoin mining machines is halved. The following table estimates the proportion of electricity costs of different types of mining machines before and after halving.

Remark:

①Existing Bitcoin mining machines are of different models. For the convenience of statistical analysis, the mining machines are divided into 85W/T (S9, T2T, A911, etc.), 60W/T (S15, M10S, M21, A1026, etc.), according to power consumption, 50W/T (M20, S17, T17, T3, A1146, etc.), 40W/T (M30, S19, S17+, etc.) mining machines, 40W/T mining machines are the latest generation of mining machines, and they still maintain a high mining capacity after halving Mine income, here does not participate in the statistical comparison;

, the reference currency price 1BTC=66690 yuan (9500USDT);"Calculating Method of Mining Profit", the reference currency price 1BTC=66690 yuan (9500USDT);

③ After halving, the average daily mining income per unit of computing power has not decreased to 50% of the original level, because up to now, most mining pools have adoptedPPS+ or FPPS revenue model, miners participate in the distribution of all mining income such as block rewards and transaction fee rewards. After the halving, as of the writing of this article (May 19, 2020), the transaction fee rewards accounted for nearly 20% of the mining revenue, which cannot be ignored. Therefore, 20% of the daily revenue will be added to the transaction fee reward;

④ Calculate the electricity fee according to the electricity price of 0.35 yuan/kWh;

⑤The author followsHashrate fluctuations in the last three yearsAfter halving, for mining machines with a power consumption ratio of 85W/T and above, the electricity bill exceeds the mining income, and a large number of mining machines are on the verge of shutdown.

After halving, for mining machines with a power consumption ratio of 85W/T and above, the electricity bill exceeds the mining income, and a large number of mining machines are on the verge of shutdown.

Before the halving, according toMiningPoolStatsAccording to the statistics, the total official computing power of the bitcoin mining pool that can be counted in the whole network is about116EH/simage description116EH/s-120EH/s。

image descriptionhttps://miningpoolstats.stream/）

Figure 3 Changes in the computing power (estimated) of Bitcoin’s entire network in the past three months (data fromhttps://www.coinwarz.com/）

After the halving, the official total computing power of the mining pool that can be counted on the entire Bitcoin network dropped to 96EH/s. Then, due to the rise in currency prices, the computing power slightly fell back, but finally stabilized atAbout 96EH/s. The total decrease in computing power of each mining pool exceeds20EH/s, down about 16.7%.

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During the first two difficulty adjustment cycles after halving, mining difficulty will gradually decrease, and mining revenue will increase significantly (estimated to increase by 20% in total)

The Bitcoin network has a set of automatic mining,it can,it canensureOver a longer period, the Bitcoin blockStable block speedCertainly, so that the Bitcoin block reward is halved approximately every four years, and finally ensures that the total supply of Bitcoin is stable at 21 million.

The Bitcoin blockchain stipulates that, on average, about10min1 block is produced, and the mining difficulty of Bitcoin is every2016The block is adjusted once. In this way, each mining difficulty adjustment takes about14 daysimage description

according to

This halving occurred on the 6th day after the latest Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment. This difficulty cycle has already passed in half. Therefore, after the halving caused the decrease in the computing power of the entire network, the mining difficulty has not been adjusted in time, and the mining income cannot be adjusted. Upgrade in time.

At the same time, the decline in the computing power of the entire network caused by the halving only affected half of the difficulty adjustment cycle, and the impact on the first mining difficulty adjustment after the halving was not thorough enough. The first difficulty adjustment after the halving was not done in one step, and the mining difficulty was directly reduced by 16.7%.

according toBitfanData provided, first mining difficulty adjustment after Bitcoin halving, mining difficulty down6%, when the currency price remains unchanged, Bitcoin mining revenue will increaseAbout 6.4%image description

With the arrival of the high water season, mining machines will usher in a tide of migration to areas rich in hydropower resources such as Sichuan and Yunnan, and the relocation of mining machines will cause some mining machines to temporarily shut down. It is optimistically estimated that in the last month, if the currency price does not fluctuate greatly, the difficulty of mining will be lowered for the first time after the halving, and some mining machines will be restarted; when the flood season comes, some models that were originally eliminated will be restarted. It operates in low electricity price mines and neutralizes the impact of mining machine migration.https://mining.btcfans.com/difficulty/bitcoin）

After the halving, before the second difficulty adjustment comes, the computing power of the entire network may still not be sufficient to support the requirement of digging out 2016 blocks in 14 days, and the second difficulty adjustment period after the halving may be extended to15 or even 16 days, and then the mining difficulty was lowered again10% or more。

After nearly a month of two difficulty adjustments, the impact of halving on mining revenue and Bitcoin computing power will be fully released. In the case that the currency price has not fluctuated much in the past month, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining will also increase. It will be reduced by about 16% to ensure the stability of the Bitcoin network block speed, and the mining income will increaseabout 20%。

The shutdown currency price of the high-power mining machine is reduced to9041image description