Zhu Jiaming: History will not "melt"
Editor's Note: This article comes fromDigital Asset Research Institute CIDA (ID: gh_cbfb4ac358dc), Author: Zhu Jiaming, published with authorization.
Digital Asset Research Institute CIDA (ID: gh_cbfb4ac358dc)
Digital Asset Research Institute CIDA (ID: gh_cbfb4ac358dc)
, Author: Zhu Jiaming, published with authorization.
On March 20, 2020, the Moganshan Research Institute and Moganshan University jointly held an online Moganshan lecture. The topic of the first discussion is Wang Xiaolu's new book "Looking Back on the Great Depression and Roosevelt's New Deal". Zhu Jiaming, co-director of the Academic Committee of the Moganshan Research Institute, had a dialogue with Wang Xiaolu.
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The following is the transcript of Professor Zhu Jiaming's speech
First of all, I still want to make a very brief evaluation of Xiaolu. Xiaolu and I have known each other for more than forty years. Just now I told Xiaolu that at the end of February 1989, he was studying at the Australian National University in Canberra. I went there specially and drove nearly a thousand kilometers from Melbourne to Canberra. Very happy.
I haven't done any special research on the Great Crisis of 1929 or the New Deal. Therefore, it is difficult for me to make in-depth comments on Xiao Lu's speech of academic significance. The focus of my speech is just to make some additions to the big historical background and influence of the Great Crisis of 1929 and Roosevelt's New Deal. I hope these additions can be of value and significance to Xiaolu's further research and the audience's understanding of Xiaolu's speech.
The main title of my presentation was "History Does Not 'Melt'" and the subtitle was "Revelation Ninety Years After the Great Depression and the New Deal". Here I use the concept of "circuit breaker", because after entering March, the US stock market has experienced "circuit breaker" many times, which has become an important "landscape" in the capital market. However, history has always been continuous, and "melting" cannot occur.
My speech involves the following five issues: (1) A precise understanding of the time period of "Great Depression and Roosevelt's New Deal"; (2) Three historical figures who influenced the world from 1929 to 1937; (3) Game players from the crisis to the New Deal and the new social balance; (4) the fatal impact of the Great Depression and the New Deal on China; (5) the conclusion.
In order to let everyone have a better sense of the Great Depression that happened 90 years ago, I am quoting a sentence that Schumpeter said at the time: "People feel that the ground under their feet is collapsing.". Schumpeter was quite mature at the time, and his words not only sum up the moment, but they are still powerful today.
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1. The precise period of "Great Depression and Roosevelt's New Deal"
To understand and recognize the occurrence of the Great Flute ninety years ago and the historical background of the New Deal, we first need to make a brief review of the real economy of the United States at that time. In the United States in the 1920s, the economy and the market were shrouded in an atmosphere of excitement and prosperity. In the 1920s, the population of the United States was 123 million, and automobiles, radios and refrigerators had entered thousands of households. Take cars as an example. In 1929, the number of cars owned by the American people was 23 million. If every six people took one car, then all the American people could be carried on the road. It should be said that the United States in the 1920s was an era when industrialization achieved all-round development, consumerism was formed, and the credit economy rose. It is no wonder why, in the United States and the world, no one could have foreseen that the crisis might break out until the crisis broke out.
Later generations have been looking for the deep reasons behind the Great Depression in 1929. For example, monetary easing in the United States in the 1920s was an important reason. In fact, there were many reasons for the rapid growth of M2 in the United States at that time. If you zoom out the historical lens, you will find that the industrialization process of the United States was not completed at that time, nor did the United States complete the transformation from a semi-monetized country to a monetized country, and the modern credit system was not yet complete. Therefore, in terms of the analysis of the internal needs of the United States, the rapid growth of M2 in the 1920s was necessary, which was conducive to the acceleration of investment in the United States, the realization of industrialization, and the transformation of monetization and the establishment of a modern credit system.
It is worth pointing out that before the implementation of Roosevelt's New Deal, the United States had actually started Roosevelt's New Deal without Roosevelt, and it should have started from 1931 to 1932. The President of the United States at that time was Hoover (Herbert Clark Hoover, 1874-1964). Therefore, there is a difference between the New Deal in a broad sense and Roosevelt’s New Deal, and there is a point of intersection between the New Deal and the New Deal.
Why am I so obsessed with the exact time period from the Great Depression to the New Deal? It is hoped that people will place the period from the Great Depression to the New Deal in the larger context of World War I and World War II, which are the historical coordinates for understanding the Great Depression and the New Deal. The First World War lasted from 1914 to 1919, and the Second World War lasted from September 1939 to May 1945. It's not hard to spot a timing coincidence: The Great Depression of 1929 occurred halfway between the end of World War I and the beginning of World War II. If Japan occupied Northeast China in 1931 as the prelude to World War II, before Roosevelt implemented the New Deal, the world geopolitical situation had already begun.
In short, I advocate understanding the Great Depression and the New Deal in the context of the big history and the big world. Discussions of the Great Depression and the New Deal cannot be separated from the context of the two world wars. Quite the contrary, the complex causes of the Great Depression and the New Deal can only be gleaned from the two wars. The real core reason that led to the collapse of the United States in 1929 was actually the mismatch of economic resources between the speed of industrialization of the United States itself and the reconstruction after World War I, and what was more serious was the mismatch between economic resources and political resources. The most serious thing is that the industrialization of the United States in the 1920s required the world market and European countries to be beneficiaries, especially to ease the overall crisis in Germany; on the other hand, the United States gradually decoupled from the new post-war situation and moved towards isolationism , interrupted the historical period in which the United States went to Europe and the world, and globalized to share the fruits of American industrialization. This led to the problem Xiao Lu mentioned, the sharply increased money supply, capital surplus, and production capacity in the United States were difficult to digest in the United States, and eventually changed to the so-called "excess" crisis and depression. .
In short, it is not enough to explain the incident that occurred at the middle point of the two wars only through the reasons of the United States itself. The isolationism of the United States in the 1920s was the direct and even fundamental cause of the Great Depression. After the Second World War, the United States implemented the "Marshall Plan" and obviously learned this historical lesson.
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2. Three historical figures who influenced the world from 1929 to 1937
The period from 1929 to 1937 was an extremely important decade in the 20th century. These include the Great Depression and the New Deal period. During this decade, three historical figures had an irreplaceable influence on the subsequent direction of the 20th century. These three historical figures are: Roosevelt, Hitler and Stalin. Because of the First World War, the "era of laissez-faire capitalism" dominated in the 19th century came to an end. It originated from the Great Depression in the United States and pushed these three historical figures onto the world stage. Through the three countries of the United States, Germany and the Soviet Union, they created Three economic system models and three directions of social transformation.
First, Roosevelt's "New Deal" model. President Hoover before Roosevelt was not unaware of the seriousness and internal main causes of the Great Depression in the United States, but he just missed the best time to save the Great Flute. When he started to act, the people, especially the industrial workers, lost patience and lost the support of the middle class and the elite. Hoover did, however, start the "New Deal" of total government intervention in the economy through fiscal means. History gave an opportunity to the Democratic Party and former New York Governor Roosevelt. What Roosevelt was best at was using the cable broadcasting network that emerged in the 1920s to let people across the country hear his ideas directly. At that time, radio stations and broadcasting in the United States were fully popular. Roosevelt directly declared war on the bourgeoisie, especially the monopoly bourgeoisie, in exchange for the understanding and support of industrial workers, farmers and the general public. By the way, please note that the US presidential election is closely related to the progress of the media. In the 1960s, Kennedy was elected president of the United States through the television network; Obama, who was elected president of the United States in 2008, relied on the Internet; after that, Trump relied on Twitter.
Second, Hitler's "National Socialism", also known as the "National Socialist" model. During this period, there are many coincidences in the time of history. Roosevelt entered the White House for the first time in March 1933; in Germany, Hindenburg handed over power to Hitler at the age of 86 on January 20, 1933. The German parliament then granted Hitler unlimited powers in March 1933. Hitler proposed "National Socialism", claiming to restore the prosperity of Germany before World War I, to allow every German worker to obtain employment, basic social security, reduce the gap between rich and poor, own houses, cars, refrigerators, and even get overseas vacations Chance.
Third, Stalin's "planned economy" model. In the third year after Lenin's death, the CPSU held its 15th Congress, which resolved that the Soviet Union implement the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy from 1928 to 1933. For this reason, Stalin completely abandoned the "New Economic Policy" formulated by Lenin in 1929, implemented collective ownership and state ownership, and established the foundation for the technological transformation of the national economy in a short period of time through state power, turning the Soviet Union from an agricultural country. Change to become an industrial country.
The results of the above three models are quite different. Hitler's "National Socialism" followed the fall and end of the Third Reich; Stalin's command economic model has been replaced by a new economic model because of the economic reforms of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, especially China's economic reform; only Roosevelt The "legacy" of the New Deal continued to influence the evolution of the US economic system after the war.
The most classic case of comparing the US New Deal and Stalin's planned economy is to compare two dams or hydropower stations: first, the Dnieper River hydropower station built and completed by the former Soviet Union from 1929 to 1933, located in Ukraine. In World War II, a tragic battle took place here. Second, the Hoover Dam, which was built in the United States in 1931 and completed in 1936, is located at the northwestern border of Nevada and Arizona.
Later, there was the Ass Hydropower Station in Egypt in the 1960s, and the Three Gorges Dam in China built from the 1990s to the early 21st century. These four hydropower stations have a strong national and institutional symbolic meaning.
3. From the crisis to the "game" subject of the New Deal and the new social balance
In the entire process from the Great Depression to the New Deal in the United States, there were no violent political and social conflicts, let alone the danger of bloody turmoil and regime change. However, the process from the Great Depression to the New Deal was not without a "game" between different forces in society.
Looking back, in this special period of history, the subjects of the "game" include: (1) The government and country represented by Roosevelt, and the Democratic Party behind it. (2) Corporation, and a corporation-based alliance of industrialists, entrepreneurs and bankers. (3) Industrial workers and the broad blue-collar class. (4) Middle class and intellectual class.
Among them, the role of Roosevelt is crucial. The success of his "New Deal" is to prevent the class antagonism caused by the Great Depression from turning into social unrest, resulting in system crisis and regime crisis. Roosevelt created the rules of the "game" of different social forces. For example, the Bank Act of 1933, the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933, and the Wagner Act, all belong to the so-called "game" rules. In the end, Roosevelt achieved a new social balance consisting of the government, Corporation and trade unions. Among them, the most notable ones are: since the beginning of the New Deal, on the one hand, the Corporation has gained more room for development, promoting the historical process of the United States entering the corporate state; on the other hand, the status of American labor unions has been improved unprecedentedly. See below:
Corresponding to the above balance is the adjustment of the distribution of tax resources, welfare resources, and corporate profit resources of the whole society. After Roosevelt’s New Deal, the new social balance achieved by the United States helped the United States realize the interaction between industrialization and World War II, and laid the foundation for the United States to become a superpower after the war.
4. The fatal impact of the Great Depression and the New Deal on China
In 1927, the Nanjing Republic of China government replaced the Beiyang government, and the Republic of China entered a new historical stage of establishing a modern country and a new society. However, only two years later, the Great Depression broke out in the United States, followed by a global economic crisis, which soon spread to China and had a fatal impact on China.
In terms of economy, because China's monetary system is based on the "silver system" with silver as the main body, it has formed a short-term "firewall" that cushions the impact of the Great Depression. However, in the end, in the context of the deepening world crisis, the Chinese government had to "abolish the two and change the yuan" in 1933, and then in response to the "Silver Acquisition Act" announced by the Roosevelt administration in 1934, in order to save the outflow of silver, the Chinese government abolished the "Silver Acquisition Act" in 1935. "Silver standard" system, implementing legal currency reform.
thank you all.
In 1929, when the Great Depression swept the United States and Europe, it was also a turning point for the Chinese Communist Party and Mao Zedong. In the autumn of this year, Mao Zedong, who was under 36 years old, lamented that "it is easy to live in life and difficult to grow old" in his poem "Picking Mulberries · Chongyang", and described his true state of mind at that time with "Wanlishuang". In winter, Mao Zedong presided over the work of the Fourth Red Army and held the famous "Gutian Conference" in Fujian. Mao Zedong was re-elected as the former secretary of the party committee. Since then, the Chinese Communist Party has become an armed force capable of achieving its political goals. Only two decades later, the Chinese Communist Party gained national power.
