OKEX Investment Research: The pessimism in the market persists, and the difficulty of mining has been greatly reduced due to the sharp drop in prices
In the past week, the rebound in Bitcoin prices has slowed down, while U.S. stocks have rebounded rapidly due to the impact of the two trillion-dollar economic stimulus bill passed by the Senate and the House of Representatives.Standard & Poor's indexIt surged 10.21% last week, the biggest weekly gain since March 2009.gold futuresIt rose 9.5% last week, its biggest weekly gain since September 2008. Bitcoin rallied nearly 7% during the same trading session, but began to fall after U.S. stocks closed. Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market diverge further.Coinmetricssecondary title
A "death cross" formed on the daily line
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Market pessimism intensifies
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Mining Difficulty Decreased Significantly Due to Plunging Prices
The mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network was adjusted on March 26 due to the collapse in the price of Bitcoin. according toOklinkData from Bitcoin Explorer shows that this adjustment has reduced the difficulty of mining by 15.95%, which is the fifth time in history that this value has been reduced by more than 10%, and it is also the largest drop in absolute hash value. In addition, according to Oklink's forecast, the Bitcoin network will undergo the next difficulty adjustment on April 10, 2020, and the mining difficulty may be reduced by another 13.85%.
Sudden drops in Bitcoin mining difficulty have historically been shown to signal price bottoms, but there are still exceptions. In December 2018, Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped by 15%, but the price did not rebound until four months later. And according toTokenanalystimage description
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The new quarter contract still presents a negative premium
The price of Bitcoin began to fall sharply after the U.S. stock market fell back on Friday, and broke through the key support level of $6,400 in one fell swoop, and at the same time completely broke the previous bullish trend line. In addition, OKEx's new quarterly contract (BTCUSD0626) went live for trading on Friday afternoon. The current quarterly contract trading price is still more than $50 below the spot price, which usually means that the market believes that the spot price will fall further.
At present, various data have great conflicts in the prediction of the bottom price, and it is difficult for market participants to directly observe the direction of price development. At the beginning of last week, Bitcoin rallied as the stock market rallied, but failed to break above the $7,000 resistance level. Given that the correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin has declined but remains high recently, we need to keep an eye on the direction of changes in the macro economy. Such as whether the stock market will fall back again as the novel coronavirus continues to spread, or will it reverse and rise as more economic stimulus measures are introduced. At the same time, it is also necessary to observe whether Bitcoin will continue to follow the trend of stocks, or whether it will completely decouple after a certain point in time.
Risk warning: This article does not constitute an investment recommendation. Investment is risky. Investment should consider personal risk tolerance. It is recommended to conduct an in-depth investigation of the project and carefully make your own investment decisions.
