The exchange is about to reshuffle and today's market analysis

The circle is very chaotic, many of them are shuffling, whether it is shuffling or whitewashing. What should come has finally come.

In Hong Kong, start again!

Just yesterday, a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald learned from people familiar with the matter that no more than five digital asset exchanges have been included so far. A person familiar with the matter claimed, "They have all gone through strict screening, including the founder's due diligence information, which is a thick stack. 99% of the so-called world-class platforms cannot be included in the list."

In fact, as early as November 1, 2018, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Statement on the Regulatory Framework for Virtual Asset Portfolio Management Companies, Fund Distributors and Trading Platform Operators" (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulatory Framework") , issued new regulations for virtual asset investment such as digital currency. And to distinguish between operators who hold a license and those who do not intend to apply for a license.

According to the "Regulatory Framework", to become a licensed platform must go through the following steps:

In the first step, the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission does not immediately issue a license to the exchange, but understands with the applicant about anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing, and the exchange provides real operating conditions.

You must know that in the current top exchanges, brush volume has become the norm. For example, the tokens traded by Binance, Huobi, and OK are ranked 8, 11, and 15 in Feixiaohao respectively; while they are ranked 8, 18, and 42 in Coinmarketcap.

In the official group of Matcha, the official personnel do not shy away from using machines to swipe the amount, claiming to avoid the K-line split - the swipe amount is actually a misleading to investors, and it will be punished in the stock market, but it has become the norm in the currency circle.

In the real trading volume rankings of various exchanges released by various media, most of the top-ranked exchanges have problems. According to the real trading volume list of exchanges released by TokenInsight, only a few have no trading volume. You can refer to it :

Under regulatory compliance, brushing will become a thing of the past.

The second step is to include some exchanges in the regulatory sandbox of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Based on the performance of these platforms in the sandbox, rigorously judge whether they are suitable for supervision by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and then issue licenses.

There are currently no more than 5 known news, and it is estimated that 99% of the world-class trading platforms are not listed.

In fact, this is normal, and the exchange is a piece of fat. Under supervision, the industry is facing a new round of reshuffle. Technology is not the first priority, but interests are.

In many cases, it may not be the biggest one who has the last laugh. China is a society that emphasizes friendship, and everyone knows this. Everyone can pursue compliance, but sometimes a small clause can stop your efforts.

The third step is to enter the next stage of the sandbox after obtaining the license. The platform needs to report more frequently, be supervised and reviewed, so that they can formulate strict internal control measures under the close supervision of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; 12 months later. You can apply to leave the sandbox.

From the current point of view, although Huobi and OK have been actively seeking compliance and adopting a series of measures, including the acquisition of listed companies, the three major exchanges may become "some of the world's largest virtual Asset trading platforms appear to be operating in Hong Kong, but they are outside the purview of the SFC and any other regulator."

This does not include a lot of content within the scope of supervision, and there are currently a few that have flowed out:

①The place of registration of the entity must be in Hong Kong, so that local residents of Hong Kong and persons with assets in Hong Kong can trade here, and be regulated by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission. For example, Binance is headquartered in Malta, so it claims to be trading in Hong Kong, but in fact it does not necessarily meet the conditions of being registered in Hong Kong and having an office in Hong Kong. This kind of problem eliminates a large number of exchanges in the currency circle.

②The company's headquarters and decision-making power must be in Hong Kong. If an executive registers a shell company in Hong Kong and actually operates it in other places, it is also illegal. This can also eliminate a number of license competitors.

③The China Securities Regulatory Commission will also examine whether the shareholders of the exchange have any experience of violating regulations in traditional financial institutions, or engaging in illegal behaviors in the digital asset industry. In addition, there are technical requirements, investor asset insurance requirements, and third-party auditing reports.

One sentence summary: the company must be in Hong Kong, the top management must be in Hong Kong, and there must be no black history.

Under such strict requirements, many large companies are still on the sidelines. After all, is it beneficial to actively accept supervision?

At present, although everyone does not have a license, they are operating normally. For example, Binance did not have a US license before, but it operated in the United States. Later, the rules in the United States became stricter, and Binance had to withdraw from the United States. Afterwards, it re-entered in a compliant capacity by acquiring an exchange in the United States.

At present, there are not many companies applying for this license, and the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission has not released the shortlist. However, those that have already flowed out include HashKey Group, Hong Kong Stock BC Technology Group, HKbitEX (Hong Kong Digital Asset Exchange), etc. - all exchanges that we have never contacted before.

Is the market of compliant exchanges bad for the three major exchanges?

I don’t think so. Although compliant exchanges will have some advantages, such as the release of DC/EP, they must be the first to get official support and technical docking.

But as investors, what we are most concerned about is whether the exchange is safe, whether the trading depth is large enough, and whether the user experience is good enough.

What will be the impact of this matter?

Referring to the situation when our country’s stock market was officially established—the stock market has skyrocketed for two years, we have the following judgments:

One is that if a new compliant exchange issues a platform currency, it will be a good choice to pick the most reliable one to enter, and brokerage stocks will never be bad.

The second is that if it goes public, for many people in China, there will be a great change in understanding, and they will think that virtual currency transactions mean that it is legal, which will trigger a large influx of hot money, and then drive the whole line to rise.

It is worth mentioning that virtual currency trading is currently legal in China, but it is not so compliant, including exchanges are just not compliant.

Many people don't study the difference between compliance and legality-those who violate the regulations should be done by bold people, and those who violate the regulations should not be done by anyone.

Third, no matter whether we have the opportunity to participate in the Hong Kong platform, it is a good decision to deploy BTC and good platform coins in advance.

Finally, once again, don't underestimate the impact of this event. Some people may think that in Singapore and other countries, don’t there already be compliant exchanges? What's the big deal.

In fact, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are globalized, but China is too powerful and has a large population. Whether it is officially recognized or not, it has too much influence on the entire currency circle. Otherwise, look at the day of 1025. Bitcoin trend?

The current trend is downward, and the short-term is still dominated by range shocks in the box. Spot friends, feel free to hold it, and those who play contracts must pay attention. The risk-averse upward market has passed, and the downward trend before the beginning of the year is only short-term.

1.10 Today's Analysis

Yesterday evening, the BTC contract fell slightly, and then rebounded sharply to below the pressure of the 8000 integer mark and then fell back. It is still in the downward channel, and the overall trend is still relatively weak, but the current price is not far from the important support below. Once bottomed out (v:pzzz393), continue to observe the market outlook.

ETH also fell back following BTC. The downward market has not yet stabilized, and it is better for everyone to work at heights.

Suggestions for operation: enter the market with empty orders around 7815 and see around 7710. If the downward trend is violent, you can continue to look down. The focus below is on the 7600 line. Follow the trend!