12.31 Noon market analysis and information
According to the previous announcement of the Ethereum development team, the "Muir Glacier" (Muir Glacier) hard fork is planned to be carried out at the block height of 9200000. Although the specific date may vary due to the time period and time zone, it is basically at Around January 1, 2020.
It's all the fault of the difficulty bomb
Ethereum block difficulty started increasing in November 2016, and since then developers have been forced to perform hard forks to keep the network functioning until the transition to the proof-of-stake algorithm. In preparation for the Istanbul upgrade that was implemented on December 8, the Ethereum team once again decided to delay detonating the so-called "difficulty bomb".
In fact, detonating the difficulty bomb will make the Ethereum blockchain generate fewer and fewer data blocks every day, and transaction fees on the network will slowly rise, so in the long run, the cost of using decentralized applications will gradually increase. Therefore, the Ethereum development team proposed a so-called "Muir Glacier" hard fork solution, which aims to delay the difficulty bomb again. If the hard fork is implemented smoothly, the difficulty bomb will be frozen until 4 million new blocks are mined, which means that Ethereum will not be threatened by the difficulty bomb for at least the next few years.
Over the past period of time, Ethereum developers have been cautiously introducing a difficulty bomb to Ethereum, a mechanism that complicates the process of generating new blocks and also helps make the current proof-of-work network more complex. Transfer to a proof-of-stake network. According to the original plan, the Ethereum difficulty bomb should explode after the new Casper algorithm is ready to be put into production, which will bring the network into the so-called "ice age". During this transitional stage, Ethereum mining will become very difficult and unprofitable picture. In theory, this strategy would force miners to "have to" migrate to the new blockchain instead of sticking to the old one. But this will also lead to another new problem, let Jinse Finance continue to discuss with you.
Is it good for Ethereum if rising difficulty causes miners to give up mining?
As mining difficulty has increased, the price of Ethereum has fallen to depressing levels, falling from levels close to $200 to around $130 now. Although the current price of Ethereum has seen a slight recovery, the community generally believes that a larger downward trend cannot be stopped. Of course, some people look at this matter more optimistically. Once the exchange is successfully upgraded, it will eventually be synchronized and added to the correct version of the protocol.
But the problem is that due to the slow development of the proof-of-stake mechanism, the upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 has been postponed. During this period, the difficulty bomb has exploded several times, causing the Ethereum team to perform a hard fork to prevent miners from leaving. pose a threat to network stability. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin (Vitalik Buterin) previously predicted that the Ethereum network may collapse in 2021, because if the difficulty bomb really "hits" Ethereum, the entire network will be frozen. On the other hand, the proof-of-stake network transition has never been completed on schedule, despite events and landmark work in the Ethereum project developing faster than expected.
If the increasing trend of network difficulty remains unchanged, it may lead to the withdrawal of miners from the network, causing a decrease in network scalability, and even causing the network to collapse.
This time, the timing may have been a little too hasty
The reason why the "Muir Glacier" hard fork upgrade was chosen to be implemented at the beginning of the new year of 2020 is not clear, but some people in the Ethereum community suspect that the developers may have forgotten the decentralized difficulty during the "Istanbul" hard fork upgrade a few weeks ago this matter. Although the content of this adjustment is relatively small, it seems a bit inhumane for employees and node operators of various exchanges to upgrade their clients after the New Year celebrations are completed.
Blockstream Chief Strategy Officer Samson Mow also mocked Ethereum on Twitter:
"I'm so happy! Everyone can prepare for the hard fork of Ethereum on New Year's Day."
More importantly, if the "Muir Glacier" hard fork goes wrong, then the first day of the new year will undoubtedly be the darkest day for Ethereum. In fact, in the cryptocurrency market, January 1st is usually a relatively inactive day, so almost no blockchain project side will choose to update nodes on this day, after all, no customer will upgrade the client On my list of New Year's resolutions.
According to the information of Ethernodes, currently about 72% of the nodes are ready for the update of the "Muir Glacier" hard fork, but still about 28% of the users may slowly adjust their protocol. On the other hand, the omission of adjusting the difficulty bomb in "Istanbul" last time also made the community feel that the Ethereum development team did not do a good job in network governance.
Earlier this year, former Ethereum client Parity developer Afri Schoedon put forward a new proposal: abandon the difficulty bomb completely, and remove the mechanism from the Ethereum protocol, so that there is no need to delay every time. However, not everyone agrees with the idea of completely removing the difficulty bomb, because completely removing the difficulty bomb will lead to a decrease in the frequency of Ethereum network upgrades, so that miners have no incentive to update their software and equipment, and will lead to Internet slows down considerably. Not only that, but removing the difficulty bomb entirely would also increase the risk of a smooth transition to the proof-of-stake algorithm for the Ethereum blockchain.
Perhaps, all questions can be answered on the first day of 2020.
Today's Information
Today's Information
The Central Bank: In 2020, the construction of a "digital central bank" will be accelerated and financial technology regulatory rules such as blockchain will be introduced
A few days ago, the Financial Technology Committee meeting of the People's Bank of China was held in Beijing. The meeting summarized the financial technology work in 2019, researched and deployed the key tasks in 2020, and issued the "Financial Technology (FinTech) Development Plan (2019-2021)" at the meeting. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to continuously optimize the mobile payment ecosystem and further improve the service level of payment convenience for the people and enterprises. Actively promote data governance and accelerate the construction of a "digital central bank". Increase financial technology supervision, introduce a series of financial technology regulatory rules such as personal financial information protection, blockchain, etc., play the role of standard rules, testing and certification, and build financial technology innovation management covering industry supervision, social supervision, association self-discipline, and institutional autonomy" Four lines of defense".
12.31 Market analysis at noon today
BTC: Bitcoin is currently maintaining a short-term shock here. In the short-term, it will not rush to a particularly high level, and there is a high probability that it will be a pin-inserting behavior. You must be careful in short-term operations here. The first one can be bought around 7200 , near 7250 cannot be chased, and it is easy to wipe out losses if it maintains shocks.
If you want to invest in Bitcoin but haven't found an effective profit method, or you have stockpiled spot but don't know how to use contracts to hedge risks, or you like Nakamoto Curry's humor, welcome to communicate.
If you want to invest in Bitcoin but haven't found an effective profit method, or you have stockpiled spot but don't know how to use contracts to hedge risks, or you like Nakamoto Curry's humor, welcome to communicate.
Don't worry about having no confidants on the road ahead, but there are friends on the investment road. (V: pzzz393) Wish to be with you through thick and thin!
