Bitcoin halving in 2020, will the bull market come?

If you want to talk about the hot words in the currency circle this year, I am afraid it must be "halving". Whether it is an ordinary retail investor or a cryptocurrency trading institution, starting from the bear market in 2018, they will pin their hopes on a new round of bull market that may be brought about by the third Bitcoin halving in 2020, and believe in it . The halving of public opinion also continued to ferment, or affected by this good news, Bitcoin rose from $3,000 at the beginning of the year to the highest point of $14,000 in 2019!

However, history will not simply repeat, there will always be striking similarities.

On November 28, 2012, Bitcoin was halved for the first time, and the reward for digging out a block every 10 minutes was reduced from 50 bits to 25; followed by 2013, the price of Bitcoin went all the way from around $20 at the beginning of the year. Rise to around $260, with a maximum increase of 1200%

On July 10, 2016, Bitcoin was halved for the second time, and the reward for digging out a block every 10 minutes was reduced from 25 Bitcoins to 12.5; close to 2017, Bitcoin rose from $1,457 to $20,000, It has reached the highest peak in the history of bitcoin prices, with a year-round increase of up to 1272.68%.

If you refer to the previous halving rules, the third halving will come on May 14, 2020, and the bitcoin block reward will be halved from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins. From the perspective of historical prices, the previous two Bitcoin halvings have stimulated the market to usher in a new round of bull market, so will the bull market next year come as scheduled?

Is the halving strongly related to the skyrocketing Bitcoin?

After the two halvings of Bitcoin, it has indeed achieved an astonishing increase, so it must be proved: Is the halving strongly related to the skyrocketing Bitcoin? Just like the decrease in the amount of funds flowing into the gold market, will it necessarily prove that the cryptocurrency market will usher in a rise?

First of all, behind the rise of Bitcoin in 2013, there is actually a political and economic reason that cannot be ignored: the currency crisis in Cyprus led to a rise in the price of Bitcoin.

In March 2013, the government of Cyprus was unable to rescue the banking crisis that broke out in the country and had to apply for assistance from international financial institutions.

The European Union and other international organizations agreed to give Cyprus a loan of 10 billion euros on the condition that the country's banks must collect a deposit tax of 5.8 billion euros from bank depositors.

After several rounds of negotiations, the final result is that Cyprus's banking restructuring plan will be introduced: the National Bank, the second largest bank in Cyprus, will be closed, and the money of depositors below 100,000 euros will be transferred to the largest bank in Cyprus. For banks, 100,000 euros of depositors with more than 100,000 euros will be transferred without loss, and the part above 100,000 euros will be frozen to solve the debt problem, and this part will almost be lost.

This directly caused the people in Cyprus to panic and rush to exchange their national currency for bitcoin. Since the supply of bitcoin is limited within a certain period of time, people bought in large quantities, causing bitcoin to go from more than 30 US dollars in just a few days. Skyrocketed to $265.

Then let’s look at the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin in 2017. The industry has basically reached a consensus on the reason for this round of market price—it was brought about by the one-click coin issuance mechanism of Ethereum.

That is to say, blockchain project parties can issue their own tokens based on the Ethereum ERC20 system to raise funds from ordinary public investors.

Since the early ICO investment has achieved good returns, with several times or even tens of times of returns at the opening, the wealth effect has attracted a large number of projects and funds to enter the market, thus starting the super bull market in 2017.

To sum up, every surge in Bitcoin is not necessarily related to the halving of output, and there are related economic, political and other factors behind its surge.

Therefore, the halving of Bitcoin production in 2020 may not necessarily stimulate the arrival of a new round of bull market.

BTC: Bitcoin is currently maintaining a short-term shock here. In the short-term, it will not rush to a particularly high level, and there is a high probability that it will be a pin-inserting behavior. You must be careful in short-term operations here. The first one can be bought around 7200 , near 7250 cannot be chased, and it is easy to wipe out losses if it maintains shocks.

If you want to invest in Bitcoin but haven't found an effective profit method, or you have stockpiled spot but don't know how to use contracts to hedge risks, or you like Nakamoto Curry's humor, welcome to communicate.

Don't worry about having no confidants on the road ahead, but there are friends on the investment road. I am Nakamoto Curry (BTC6668888), and I am willing to stand with you through thick and thin!

market strategy

BTC: Bitcoin is currently maintaining a short-term shock here. In the short-term, it will not rush to a particularly high level, and there is a high probability that it will be a pin-inserting behavior. You must be careful in short-term operations here. The first one can be bought around 7200 , near 7250 cannot be chased, and it is easy to wipe out losses if it maintains shocks.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when speculating in coins.

risk warning

The points involved in the article are for reference only.

Market views are time-sensitive and will be adjusted at any time due to adjustments in disk operations.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when speculating in coins.