The halving market will not actually happen? big mistake

Editor's Note: This article comes fromBitBond (ID: BitBond007), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

, reprinted by Odaily with authorization.

There are still about 210 days until Bitcoin’s third halving. In April of this year, Bitcoin started from the price level of 4,000 US dollars in one fell swoop, broke through one key position after another, and rose to nearly 14,000 US dollars at one point. But then it turned around and oscillated all the way down, the lowest even reached a nearly halved $7,300, and the current price is around $8,700.

Is this the end of the halving market? Some people even believe that the rise of Bitcoin this year is completely affected by Litecoin, which is the result of the spontaneous "resonance" of funds on the market, and is not directly affected by the upcoming halving of Bitcoin at all. Pessimists of the technical school even believe that the halving of Bitcoin has been over since the moment it fell below the 120-day line, because the last halving market, Bitcoin went all the way up on the 120-day line, Never fell below.

But is the halving market really gone? Bond thinks not necessarily. The following is a rough analysis from several angles, why the halving market of Bitcoin is likely to still start.

If the price of Bitcoin does not rise, will anyone still buy it? If you think the answer is yes, then the balance of supply and demand will definitely be broken, because after the halving, the output of Bitcoin will be cut in half, but the demand will not change. As a result, supply decreases, demand increases, and prices increase.

The average chip cost is going up

Not only traders, but in fact the mining cost of miners is not low. According to estimates, the current annual electricity consumption of the entire Bitcoin network is about 71.55Twh. If calculated at an electricity cost of 0.3 yuan, miners will spend 21.5 billion yuan a year on electricity. At present, the annual output of Bitcoin is about 657,000, which can be obtained by dividing the electricity cost by the output. The electricity cost of one Bitcoin is about 32,700 RMB, which is equivalent to about 4,700 US dollars. This is only the electricity fee, and when the cost of the mining machine itself and other expenses such as operating costs are included, the mining cost of the miners will also be higher than $5,000.

Market Awareness of Bitcoin Is Growing

What is the significance of this conclusion? As the market's awareness of Bitcoin continues to increase, even when CCTV announces that "Bitcoin is an application of blockchain", ordinary people will gradually change their views on Bitcoin and even participate in the purchase of this alternative asset .

It Doesn’t Take Much Money to Rise Bitcoin

Some people think that it is very difficult for Bitcoin to rise sharply again, because the current market value of Bitcoin has reached 160 billion U.S. dollars, and it is no longer the "toy" that is less than 10 billion U.S. dollars.

But in fact, 160 billion US dollars is actually not big, and it is nothing compared to the huge traditional assets. This year, Changpeng Zhao from Binance and Hayes from Bitmex both believe that the surge in Bitcoin this year is not due to the entry of funds, and Bitcoin can still achieve three or four times the increase at every turn, not to mention that if there are funds entering the market, it will be a huge increase. What kind of scene? Theoretically, if the US$160 billion is to be doubled again, the amount of funds required may only be billions of US dollars. Do you know that the P2P thunderstorm in 2018 involved 7 trillion yuan of funds?

Therefore, the volume of Bitcoin is still very small.