Current Status of Global Digital Currency Market Activity
China is already a super red sea of competition in the digital currency market. How to expand overseas markets and tap new traffic growth points is the main problem facing most exchanges. This report attempts to evaluate the status quo of digital currency market activity in various countries through comparative analysis of data in various dimensions. The author has found through long-term tracking of digital currency flow changes in 185 countries and 53 exchanges that TOP20 countries account for the total global activity. 74.74% of the total, and the remaining 165 countries together accounted for 25.26%. For an exchange or any other blockchain product, it is always more choice than effort in terms of global market expansion. If unfortunately one of the 165 countries is selected, it is very likely to "get twice the result with half the effort".
The key conclusions of this report are as follows:
1. The United States, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Japan, Ukraine, Poland, Thailand, South Korea, Mexico, Australia and other countries have high trading enthusiasm but have local strong regional exchanges with high barriers to entry; while the United Kingdom, Countries such as Vietnam, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Canada have strong trading needs, but lack local exchanges, which can be used as key expansion targets for exchanges in overseas markets.
2. South American countries represented by Venezuela and Argentina, and African countries represented by Sudan and Nigeria, although the transaction flow is not high, their fiat currency system is unstable and inflation rate is high, and users tend to allocate digital currency through over-the-counter transactions Furthermore, hedging the risk of fiat currency has a strong demand for use and can be used as a blue ocean market reserve.
3. Countries such as India, Slovenia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Nigeria have high public opinion but low transaction enthusiasm. They are high-potential growth markets and should be continuously observed.
4. In the research on Japan and South Korea, it was found that global exchanges have very little traffic from Japan and South Korea. Japanese users are mainly concentrated in local exchanges such as Bitflyer, Zaif, Bitbank, and Coincheck; while Korean users are also concentrated in Upbit, Bithumb, etc. local exchange. In addition to strong local exchanges, users in the Japanese and Korean markets show strong “closed” characteristics. Therefore, the author believes that Japan and South Korea do not have a good target for overseas market expansion.
The key conclusions of this report are as follows:
Introduction to the Statistical Model of Market Activity in the Global Digital Currency Market
2. South American countries represented by Venezuela and Argentina, and African countries represented by Sudan and Nigeria, although the transaction flow is not high, their fiat currency system is unstable and inflation rate is high, and users tend to allocate digital currency through over-the-counter transactions Furthermore, hedging the risk of fiat currency has a strong demand for use and can be used as a blue ocean market reserve.
4. In the research on Japan and South Korea, it was found that global exchanges have very little traffic from Japan and South Korea. Japanese users are mainly concentrated in local exchanges such as Bitflyer, Zaif, Bitbank, and Coincheck; while Korean users are also concentrated in Upbit, Bithumb, etc. local exchange. In addition to strong local exchanges, users in the Japanese and Korean markets show strong “closed” characteristics. Therefore, the author believes that Japan and South Korea do not have a good target for overseas market expansion.
Note: The traffic in this report refers to the average PV monthly activity data on the web from May to July 2019, and the data comes from similarweb.
Introduction to the Statistical Model of Market Activity in the Global Digital Currency Market
The overall ranking of global market activity - the United States, Russia, and Brazil are separated into TOP3
Graphic: Statistical Model of Global Digital Currency Market Activity
The above chart data comes from the weighted data of each dimension according to the model. Next, the detailed data of each dimension will be displayed.
Note: The traffic in this report refers to the average PV monthly activity data on the web from May to July 2019, and the data comes from similarweb.
In terms of weight distribution, the author mainly made these considerations. First of all, the trading popularity of a certain region can directly reflect the activity of the region, so exchange traffic and over-the-counter trading website traffic are the first relevant data, and the author gives 70% weight to the exchange traffic. However, the objectivity of over-the-counter transaction data is insufficient, and it is bound to be beneficial to regions where deposits and withdrawals are inconvenient. Some regions with smooth deposits and withdrawals mostly choose to conduct transactions within the exchange, and there is no need to visit vertical OTC websites. Therefore, the author only gives 10% weight for OTC transactions. And market websites such as CMC and CoinGecko are entry tools that most digital currency traders need to use, and they are also huge traffic portals for the digital currency industry, so they are also given 10% weight. Although the blockchain browser is also a tool, it belongs to the category of advanced tools. It is used more frequently by users who are slightly more professional, and it is not universal. Therefore, the author gives it a weight of 5%. In terms of popularity of public opinion, because GoogleTrends is mainly used for statistics, and Google is not a global universal search engine, and the popularity of public opinion is easily affected by political events, resulting in a surge in searches in a short period of time, so it is also only given to it. 5% weight. In addition, because the blockchain media is too regional due to language restrictions and the influence of usage habits, this model has not yet been referenced.
secondary titleThe overall ranking of global market activity - the United States, Russia, and Brazil are separated into TOP3
Based on the above model and at the same time weighted by the author, the overall ranking of the market activity of the TOP20 countries is shown in the figure below. The author sets the total global activity as 100%, and the vertical axis represents the proportion of each country's activity. A total of 185 countries were involved in this statistics, among which the TOP20 countries accounted for 74.74% of the total global activity, and the remaining 147 countries together accounted for 25.26%.secondary title
In addition, in order to make the statistical data as objective as possible, in addition to the main website, the author also took into account multiple domain names on the web side. The exchanges involving multiple domain names are as follows:
Distribution of exchange traffic based on trading popularity
The United States, Russia, and Pakistan are ranked TOP 1-3, and China is ranked 5th. There are no strong local exchanges in the UK, Vietnam, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Canada, and the traffic is relatively considerable, so we can focus on developingIn the figure above, the author also divided the selected exchanges into "regional" and "global". The division is based on the following: From the perspective of the overall activity ranking, it is found that the activity of TOP1 in the United States accounts for less than 15% of the world, because the weight of transaction heat accounts for 70%, so the overall market activity ranking is largely determined by the transaction heat, as follows The ranking of transaction popularity also verifies this point - TOP1 countries account for less than 15% of the total transaction popularity,
In addition, the author believes that there are two main reasons for the low traffic from China. First of all, compared with other countries, China's mobile Internet is more developed, and users are more inclined to use mobile apps. However, due to the limitations of statistical tools, the author only counts the traffic from the web. In addition, even if multiple domain names are considered, VPN users still cannot be counted. Although similarweb claims that it has restored VPN users through cooperation with operators, the degree of restoration is doubtful. According to news, the digital currency transaction traffic of Chinese users on the APP side is 4 times that of the Web side (API users directly access the browser, not counted as monthly active users). Based on this speculation, the transaction flow of the Chinese market is likely to far exceed that of the United States.
Therefore, we judge that if the exchange's own traffic comes from a certain country> 20%, it is regarded as a "regional" exchange, otherwise it is regarded as a "regional" exchange.
Based on the above selection of exchanges, the author analyzed the distribution of the overall traffic of exchanges in various countries. The TOP20 countries with exchange traffic are shown in the figure below. The United States, Russia, and Brazil are ranked TOP1-3, followed by Turkey, China, Indonesia, and Japan. The total traffic of TOP20 national exchanges accounts for 76.17% of the total traffic of all countries.
The author maps the activity of the digital currency market from the average monthly traffic distribution of major OTC platforms such as Localbitcoin, Buybitcoinworldwide, and Paxful in the past three months. The active TOP20 countries are as follows:
Combined with the "List of Digital Currency Exchanges with Monthly Activity > 1M" chart,It can be found that the United States, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Japan, Ukraine, Poland, Thailand, South Korea, Mexico, and Australia have strong regional exchanges in addition to global exchanges. Exchanges are local exchanges in various countries, and the barriers to entering such countries are relatively high; while the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Canada do not have strong local exchanges, and the traffic is relatively considerable, so they can focus on development.
In addition, the author believes that there are two main reasons for the low traffic from China. First of all, compared with other countries, China's mobile Internet is more developed, and users are more inclined to use mobile apps. However, due to the limitations of statistical tools, the author only counts the traffic from the web. In addition, even if multiple domain names are considered, VPN users still cannot be counted. Although similarweb claims that it has restored VPN users through cooperation with operators, the degree of restoration is doubtful. According to news, the digital currency transaction traffic of Chinese users on the APP side is 4 times that of the Web side (API users directly access the browser, not counted as monthly active users). Based on this speculation, the transaction flow of the Chinese market is likely to far exceed that of the United States.
The author maps the activity of the digital currency market from the average monthly traffic distribution of major OTC platforms such as Localbitcoin, Buybitcoinworldwide, and Paxful in the past three months. The active TOP20 countries are as follows:
Popularity of public opinion—India, Slovenia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Pakistan, Nigeria and other countries have high public opinion but low transaction enthusiasm, which are high potential growth markets
This dimension is to map the public opinion popularity of digital currency in different countries through the distribution of "BTC" entry search popularity. When considering the search popularity of the term "BTC", the author took into account the popularity of GoogleTrends and the traffic distribution of Google.com itself in various countries.
Graphic: Top 15 countries in the world ranked by inflation rate
Graphic: Google Trends shows the search popularity of "BTC" term by country
Data from TradingEconomics
Popularity of public opinion—India, Slovenia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Pakistan, Nigeria and other countries have high public opinion but low transaction enthusiasm, which are high potential growth markets
It can be seen that the discussion of digital currency in India is very hot. It can be inferred that the Indian market as a whole has a strong interest in digital currency. However, from the perspective of transaction flow data, there are still a small number of people who actually participate in transactions. Therefore, it is a blue ocean market with great potential. Well worth exploring.
Also used Similarweb to obtain the traffic distribution of Google.com in various countries. The TOP20 countries are as follows: (China is not ranked in the TOP20 because of blocking Google)
Graphic: In the past 5 years, the changes in the Google search popularity of the term "BTC" in the Indian market
In addition, Slovenia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Nigeria are also similar to India. They also present the current situation of high public opinion but low transaction enthusiasm, and they are all blue ocean markets.
The distribution of market website traffic based on the popularity of tools——CMC is still a global vertical market website traffic giant
Some readers may wonder whether the reason for its high popularity is because India's recent hearing on digital currency has led to a short-term search surge, which is not representative. Starting from this question, the author retrieved its Google Trends popularity in the past five years in India, and found that its popularity in the past 90 days is not particularly eye-catching in the long history of five years. It can be seen that India’s high discussion on digital currency is not just due to a single political event.
The traffic distribution of blockchain browsers based on the popularity of tools——Countries with developed mining industries are more suitable for browser promotion
In addition, Slovenia, the Philippines, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Nigeria are also similar to India. They also present the current situation of high public opinion but low transaction enthusiasm, and they are all blue ocean markets.
The above is the author's analysis of the status quo of the global digital currency market activity. This article only analyzes and displays data based on the activity of the global digital currency market by country, and does not give a specific explanation on how to enter a certain country. Afterwards, a series of national market expansion guides will be released successively on countries that can be focused on expansion, countries that can be used as blue ocean market reserves, and countries that can be continuously observed. Please continue to pay attention.
