6.28 Market Analysis: Falling $3,500 in two days, is BTC getting cold?

As of 16:00 on June 28, 2019, Beijing time, the CSI100 index was at 1113.7 points, down 7.1% in 24 hours. Of the constituent coins, 9 rose and 91 fell. Yesterday, after a weak shock, the index broke down again, and now it just rebounded back to the previous platform position. After stabilizing above 1100 points, it is expected to start a rebound.

Note: CSI100 is the "Shanghai Composite Index" in the CSI index series. The sample consists of the top 100 tokens in terms of size and liquidity, with a market capitalization coverage of 96%, reflecting the overall trend of the token market.

Note: CSI100 is the "Shanghai Composite Index" in the CSI index series. The sample consists of the top 100 tokens in terms of size and liquidity, with a market capitalization coverage of 96%, reflecting the overall trend of the token market.

Yesterday, Bond's point of view is: the trend is bearish, if the market closes below 12629, it is necessary to reduce positions to avoid risks and wait for opportunities around 11400. Yesterday, the level of smashing was quite fierce. After the first pin insertion reached 11,500, the short-term rebound failed to stand firm at 12,000. The second wave of decline started last night, and the lowest reached around 10,500 before it stopped falling and rebounded.

At present, BTC is hitting the 1-hour downward trend line, but the latest 1-hour line closed with a long upper shadow, indicating that the bears are trying their best to suppress it. BTC needs to break through the downward trend line to continue to hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line resistance (11755) and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement line (12000). The 1-hour MACD shows that the momentum of the bulls has begun to strengthen, and the RSI has gradually moved from the oversold area to a buyer's market. In the short term, it is expected to rebound.

If the 1-hour line is beaten back into the convergent triangle state by short sellers, you need to pay attention to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line support (11000). If you break the position, you need to decisively reduce your position, and BTC will bottom out at 10500 again.

On the Bitfinex platform, BTC has 20,061 long positions and 29,440 short positions. The two-day decline brought the long-short ratio down to 0.67. As shown in the chart above, the long-short ratio is already very close to historical lows, which usually means that a short-short rebound is not far away. If it falls to around 10,000 again, you can enter the market and fight for a rebound.trend strategy