The successful upgrade of Ethereum has exhausted all the benefits, and the decline in computing power paves the way for consensus transformation
foreword
foreword
Description of TokenGazer Cryptocurrency Data Monthly Report: This report is TokenGazer's continuous tracking of projects from various fundamentals, and is an important source of information for "TG indicators", as well as the factual basis for TG valuation and deviation tables. The TokenGazer team will release project research reports based on monthly observation reports, TG indicators, and other references at important project nodes.
use value
Description: By observing user growth, market attention (Google search index), on-chain transaction status and other information, the usage status and network value of a specific Token can be judged.
Ethereum Google Global Search Trends (2015-2019)
Data source: https://trends.google.com
ETH USD Global Search Trends (2015-2019)
Data source: https://trends.google.com
The search for Ethereum, as well as the search for ETH USD, experienced more obvious ups and downs in 2019, benefiting from the upgrade of Ethereum Constantinople and St. Petersburg, and the outside world’s attention to Ethereum has increased. In addition, in terms of geographical search, the North American region still pays more attention to Ethereum, which is in sharp contrast with other regions.
Ethereum 24H chain transaction volume
Data source: https://etherscan.io/chart
24H active addresses
Data source: https://bitinfocharts.com
Data source: https://bitinfocharts.com
BitInfoCharts data shows that the number of active Ethereum addresses has remained stable since this year. On January 4, 2018, the number of active Ethereum addresses reached a new high, reaching 1.1 million, and then entered a decline range. Overall, the number of active addresses on Ethereum has dropped by about 70% compared to the peak this year. The latest data currently (March 5, 2019) shows that the number of active addresses on Ethereum in 24 hours is 297,311, which is 27% of the record high.
The number of new addresses in Ethereum
Data source: https://etherscan.io/chart
NVT
NVT (Network value to transaction volume) is used to measure the relationship between the number of transactions on the chain and the total market value. When the increase in the number of transactions is much greater than the increase in market value, NVT shows a downward trend, indicating that the investability has increased. Since the beginning of 19 years, the NVT value of Ethereum has shown a certain fluctuation and rising trend.
Data source: coinmetrics.io
Data source: coinmetrics.io
Initial Token Public Offering
Data source: https://icorating.com
The most active way to use Ethereum before is token issuance and fundraising. The monthly trend of initial coin offerings can better reflect the activity trend of Ethereum users, but the rise of the cryptocurrency market in February this year did not affect the amount of ICO. The ICO amount in February 2019 has shrunk by about 96% compared to the ICO amount in February 2018. At the same time, the continuous development of the Binance Launchpad business will further squeeze the ICO share of Ethereum.
DApp activity
DApp overall active ranking
Ethereum Active DApp Ranking
Data source: https://dapp.review
MakerDAO
In the overall ranking of DApps on the chain, there is only one DApp in Ethereum, which is Livepeer, the most popular decentralized video content platform on the Ethereum chain. Among the top-ranked DApps on Ethereum, games and decentralized markets occupy the mainstream. At the same time, decentralized financial tool DApps are showing a continuous expansion trend.
Maker is a smart contract platform on Ethereum that supports and stabilizes the price of DAI through collateralized debt positions (CDP), automated feedback mechanisms, and appropriate external incentives. Among them, DAI is the stable currency in the system, and MKR is the token for repayment of governance weight and stability fee interest. The Maker platform allows anyone to use Ethereum assets to generate DAI for leverage. When DAI is created, it can be used like any other digital currency asset: freely sent to others, used as a means of payment for goods and services, or long-term storage.
MakerDAO users have mortgaged 2.05% of ETH in the market in smart contracts in exchange for the stable currency DAI, and the total value of ETH in MakerDAO is about 270MM US dollars.
Note: Nodes and supply focus on the number of miners, PoW mining computing power and other parameters to ensure network security. At the same time, pay attention to the Token supply curve and key unlocking nodes and other information. "Miners/supply" reflects the current mining computing power of Ethereum, The distribution status of mines, supply curve and other information.
computing power
Data source: https://etherscan.io
mining difficulty
mining difficulty
Data source: https://etherscan.io
average block time
Data source: https://etherscan.io
The computing power of Ethereum has shown a downward trend since July 2018. After the successful upgrade of Ethereum, the difficulty of mining has decreased a lot. At the same time, the block generation time has also dropped a lot, but the block reward has also changed from 3ETH to 2ETH. The reduction in rewards may have fallen below the cost line of some mining pools.
node distribution
Data source: https://www.ethernodes.org
Affected by the decrease in mining revenue, some miners/mine pools stopped their own investment in Ethereum, and the computing power of Ethereum continued to decrease. At the same time, the nodes of Ethereum also showed a continuous downward trend. , the difficulty of mining is reduced, and the block generation time is shortened, which makes the operation speed of the overall Ethereum network faster and brings a more positive impact on the DApp ecology. The upgrade of Ethereum is mainly to prepare for the transformation of the consensus mechanism. In the short term, it is not friendly to miners; in the long run, the conversion of POW to POS will help Ethereum compete with other public chains such as TRON and EOS in the future.
Mining pool share distribution
Data source: https://etherscan.io
Proportion of blocks produced by each mining pool in Ethereum during the 7-day period from 2019/2/27 to 2019/3/5.
supply curve
Data source: https://etherscan.io/chart
As can be seen from the supply curve, the supply rate of Ethereum tends to slow down.
Markets and Trading
Explanation: The market and transaction observe the volatility, rate of return, and correlation with other mainstream currencies and assets to provide investors with risk control information.
30-day rolling return volatility
Data source: https://coinmetrics.io
DAU
The rolling return volatility reflects the price fluctuation and risk level of the asset. The overall volatility of ETH digital currency assets is about 2/3 of the asset return level at the beginning of 2019. The current 24-hour volatility is within 1%.
Among the three major public chains, the daily activity of Ethereum lags behind EOS and TRON significantly.
Correlation
Correlation
The 180-day correlation analysis between digital currency assets shows that the correlation between digital currencies has increased significantly since the beginning of 2018, and the correlation degree of the entire market following the trend of Bitcoin has been greatly strengthened, and the correlation degree is around 0.8.
review
review
The search for Ethereum, as well as the search for ETH USD, experienced more obvious ups and downs in 2019, benefiting from the upgrade of Ethereum Constantinople and St. Petersburg, and the outside world’s attention to Ethereum has increased. In addition, in terms of geographical search, the North American region still pays more attention to Ethereum, which is in sharp contrast with other regions.
Although ETH was successfully upgraded this time, it has been delayed for a long time, exhausting market confidence, and the departure of core developers has made Ethereum's market performance worse. At the same time, the Ethereum network has reduced block rewards, further oppressing The living space of miners/mine pools is reduced. In the case of both mining difficulty and block generation time of Ethereum falling, the computing power of Ethereum still maintains a downward trend. In addition, the successful upgrade of Ethereum this time has increased the speed of the overall Ethereum network and brought a more positive impact on the DApp ecosystem.
The upgrade of Ethereum is mainly to prepare for the transformation of the consensus mechanism. In the short term, it is not friendly to miners; in the long run, the conversion of POW to POS will help Ethereum compete with other public chains such as TRON and EOS in the future.
The most active way to use Ethereum before is token issuance and fundraising. The monthly trend of initial coin offerings can better reflect the activity trend of Ethereum users, but the rise of the cryptocurrency market in February this year did not affect the amount of ICO. Compared with the ICO amount in February 2018, the ICO amount in February 2019 has shrunk by about 96% year-on-year. At the same time, the continuous development of the Binance Launchpad business will further squeeze the ICO share of Ethereum.
In the ranking of DApps on the overall chain, there is only one DApp in Ethereum that ranks among the best, that is, Livepeer, the most popular decentralized video content platform on the Ethereum chain, and among the top DApps in Ethereum, games, decentralized markets Occupying the mainstream, at the same time, decentralized financial tool DApps are showing a continuous expansion trend.
In terms of correlation, the positive correlation between the trend of Ethereum and Bitcoin is as high as 0.8, and the trend of Ethereum and Bitcoin is highly linked, indicating that the overall market is still highly dominated by Bitcoin.
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Investment Risk Tips
Price fluctuations: In the past, digital currency assets have had single-day and long-term price fluctuations.
Market acceptance: Digital assets may never be widely adopted by the market, in which case single or multiple digital assets may lose most of their value.
Government regulations: The regulatory framework for digital assets is still unclear, and the supervision and restrictions on existing applications by competent authorities may have a significant impact on the value of digital assets.
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