Analysis: Spot buying has yet to follow through, Bitcoin rebound lacks capital to sustain it

Odaily Report: Although Bitcoin and the crypto market rebounded quickly after Wednesday's early-session decline and held onto gains, the market still lacks fresh leveraged capital and strong spot demand, with both indicators suggesting the foundation for this rally remains fragile.

Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest is essentially flat at $53.4 billion, while open interest for tokens such as SOL, HYPE, DOGE, and NEAR is also flat or declining, indicating that the price increase has not been accompanied by notable fresh leveraged capital entering the market. On the spot side, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw only about $74 million in net inflows on Wednesday, following cumulative net outflows exceeding $400 million over the previous two trading days, and the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory, reflecting that U.S. investor spot demand is still weak.

Over the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency futures short liquidations reached $450 million, of which Bitcoin short liquidations accounted for about $300 million, the highest level since September 21. This suggests that the recent rally was largely driven by short covering rather than sustained inflows of new capital. A Marex analyst said that after Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000, the first leg of the rally was mainly driven by short liquidations, and接下来需要现货资金流入和更健康的衍生品仓位结构接力。India's FIU-registered platform Giottus, meanwhile, views this move as a relief rally and is still waiting for more confirmation signals of a trend reversal. (CoinDesk)