QCP: AI Credit Risk Replaces Inflation as Market's Primary Concern, CoreWeave Plummets 15.5%

Odaily reports that QCP released a market report noting that U.S. September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, above the market expectation of 3.6%, with a 0.6% month-over-month increase; core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also exceeding expectations. Despite the stronger inflation data, U.S. Treasury yields still fell sharply, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reversing lower after touching 5.35% and 5.73% respectively, reflecting rising demand for safe-haven assets.

QCP believes that credit risk in the AI infrastructure sector is becoming a focal point for the market. CoreWeave's stock price fell 15.5%, and its 5-year credit default swap (CDS) quote rose to 60%, triggering market concerns about the debt-servicing capacity of AI computing companies and dragging down the Nasdaq index and South Korea's KOSPI index.

Additionally, MSCI's new classification methodology for non-operating companies may affect the index inclusion eligibility of certain enterprises, further increasing structural risks in the market.

QCP notes that the market's focus is shifting from inflation constraints to credit risk in the AI industry. As the tech company earnings season approaches in the next two weeks, related risks may continue to affect investor position allocation and IPO expectations for tech companies this quarter.