CITIC Securities: Still Expects Fed to Hold in October Before a December Rate Hike

Odaily News: According to a CITIC Securities research report, U.S. September CPI came in above expectations, with core month-over-month inflation running hot once again. The range of items showing price increases was relatively broad, and the inflation rate has failed to "fall back toward target quickly enough." We still expect the Fed to raise rates one more time this year, that is, to hold steady in October and then hike by another 25bps in December.

In an environment where oil prices remain elevated and inflation stickiness persists, U.S. financial conditions are unlikely to ease meaningfully, dollar liquidity is expected to remain tight, Treasury yields do not yet have clear room to move lower, and sentiment toward gold remains fragile. The resilience of fundamentals matters more than the odds offered by liquidity. (Jinshi)