Serenity: AI supply chain investment opportunities are diverging, bullish on memory chips and the 2027-2028 optical communications supercycle

Odaily reports that White-Haired Stock Oracle Serenity posted on X stating that although AI-related stocks have recently been affected by the macroeconomic environment, rate hike expectations, and concerns over capex sustainability, the fundamentals of key supply chain segments such as memory chips and optical communications remain strong, and the market's pricing of different companies is clearly diverging.

He noted that demand visibility for memory manufacturers such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix has extended to 2030-2031, and long-term procurement agreements and price floor mechanisms are expected to support future profitability. On the optical communications side, Lumentum's capacity is essentially sold out through 2029, and with the large-scale adoption of CPO/NPO technology, a supercycle in optical communications may arrive in 2027-2028, with capacity-expanding companies such as AAOI and SIVE worth watching.

As for capital-intensive capex companies such as IREN, he stated that the market does not seem to favor companies that require continuous heavy investment while also constantly raising funds. In any case, the market currently appears to have entered a more risk-averse environment, with capital shifting toward large-cap companies in search of safety, such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palantir (PLTR).

In addition, the White-Haired Stock Oracle believes that even if AI capex slows, it does not mean that all supply chain companies will come under pressure simultaneously. The current market tends to trade AI-related stocks as a whole, which may lead to some key supply chain companies being undervalued. Rather than simply chasing the AI concept, companies with higher demand visibility, imminent profitability inflection points, and expected declines in forward valuations may deliver better performance over the medium term.