Analysis: Bitcoin short-term trapped in $81,400-$84,500 range, focus on CPI and ETF flows

Odaily News: According to the Bitfinex Alpha report, whether Bitcoin can reclaim $84,500 this week will depend on whether U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, and whether spot market buying can follow through. BTC previously fell from a high of $87,197 on October 2 to a low of $80,347 on October 8, a maximum decline of about 7.9%. During this period, it briefly dropped below $81,300 before quickly recovering; that level had previously been the range high and has now flipped back into support.

Bitfinex said this pullback is similar to multiple corrections during previous recovery phases, and investors whose cost basis is within the original trading range have not shown obvious selling. At the same time, after about $1.18 billion in positions were liquidated across the crypto market on October 8, leverage levels dropped significantly, with no large-scale re-leveraging observed. Future price action will depend more on spot demand. However, spot buying remains the weaker link in the current market. The report noted that Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost is about $84,340, and with the current price below that level, some investors may choose to sell as the rebound approaches their cost basis.

On the macro side, Bitfinex believes inflation and the interest rate environment continue to weigh on BTC. Core PCE inflation is currently at 3%, most Fed officials still expect another rate hike this year, and the U.S. 10-year real Treasury yield is about 2.91%. If this week's core CPI rises 0.2% month-over-month or less, it could reduce market rate hike expectations and push yields lower, providing room for BTC to rise; if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it could continue to suppress risk asset performance.

Bitfinex expects BTC may fluctuate in the short term between $81,300 and $84,500. If the price breaks above and holds $84,500 while ETF flows strengthen, the market may retest the $87,722 level seen at the start of the year; if it falls below $81,300 accompanied by continued outflows, it may further decline to around $77,400, the true market mean level.