After the PCE data release, Polymarket's probability of "a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October" dropped to 32%, down 10% in 1 hour

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that after the PCE data release, the probability on Polymarket of "a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October" dropped to 32%, down 10% in 1 hour; the probability of holding rates unchanged rose to 69%, up 10% in 1 hour.

The U.S. August core PCE price index came in at 3% year-over-year, a slight decline from the previous month and below market expectations, hitting a new low since February, with market expectations at 3.3%. In addition, ADP employment growth exceeded expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields edged higher.

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