The probability of the next Grok model (4.7 and above) being released before September 18 is now reported at 15%, down 38% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by PPP prediction market tool, the probability on Polymarket of "the next Grok model (4.7 and above) being released before September 18" is now reported at 15%, down 38% in 24 hours.

If, between the market's creation and September 18, SpaceXAI releases the next Grok model to the public and its version number reaches 4.7 or above, the market resolves as "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves as "No."

Qualifying models must simultaneously meet the following conditions: the name or model identifier must include "Grok," and the version number must be 4.7 or higher—for example, Grok 4.7, Grok 4.7 Heavy, and Grok 5 all count; Grok 4.6 and its updated, snapshot, or promotional versions do not count. Standalone product lines such as Grok Code Fast and Grok Imagine also do not count, nor do the version numbers of the App or website itself.

In addition, the model must genuinely be open to the public. Public testing or a rolling waitlist that anyone can apply to join may count, but closed beta, private invitations, or internal access do not count. It also does not count if text such as "Grok 4.7" merely appears on the website but the model is in fact not publicly usable.

The main basis for judgment is official information from SpaceXAI, supplemented by credible media reports for verification.

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