Huatai Securities: The necessity for a Fed rate hike in October has decreased, with another hike in December expected as the baseline scenario

Odaily News: According to a research report by Huatai Securities, looking ahead, with the Fed's September rate hike now implemented, December may be the next period of substantive debate over a rate hike, and whether the Fed begins a rate-hiking cycle still requires more data and official statements to judge. Current market pricing puts the probability of a Fed rate hike in October at over 50%, but Huatai Securities believes that with the decline in fiscal impulse, the growing erosion of oil prices on household consumption, and tightening financial conditions, employment and inflation data may cool somewhat over the next 1-2 months. The necessity for a Fed rate hike in October has decreased, and another rate hike in December is expected as the baseline scenario, while the Fed's rate path in 2027 will depend on subsequent economic data, particularly whether the job market will continue to improve, thereby driving a rebound in wage growth, as well as the trajectory of inflation. (Jinshi)