Rate Hike Probability Reaches 92.7%, US Stocks and Bitcoin May Face a Pullback

Odaily reports: Axel Adler Jr. posted on X that CME's "FedWatch" data shows a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting, with the target rate range potentially rising to 3.75%–4.00%. Among the seven previous first rate hikes since 1988, the S&P 500 declined six weeks later in five of those instances, with an average drop of 2.83%. The market has largely priced in this rate hike expectation; if the Fed signals a faster pace of rate increases or that higher rates will be maintained for longer, US stocks and Bitcoin could come under further pressure.