Analysis: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Nears One-Year Low, Macro Risks May Limit Rebound

Odaily reports: According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, rising energy costs, higher real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macroeconomic environment more complex. Whether BTC can break out of its current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trajectory of real yields and energy prices.

Bitcoin has recently remained within a range of approximately 5.5% for more than 24 consecutive trading days, with the cost basis of roughly 840,000 BTC located within this range. As profit-taking has slowed notably, the seller risk ratio has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels over the past year, though insufficient buying pressure continues to limit a breakout. Meanwhile, leverage is accumulating at both the upper and lower boundaries of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated near $82,000, while larger long positions exist in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, potentially amplifying price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.