Bull Market Signal or Short-Term Rally? Analysts Warn Whether the "Short Squeeze" Can Persist

According to Odaily, Bitcoin recently broke through a key price level, sparking discussions about whether a new bull market has begun. Some analysts believe that rapid gains, concentrated short covering, and technical breakouts are typical signals of a market bottom reversal, but others warn that the macroeconomic environment and capital inflows remain key factors in determining the sustainability of the trend.

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that Bitcoin's recent rally is very similar to historical bottoming phases, which are typically accompanied by short squeezes, sharp single-day gains, and breakouts above key technical resistance levels, followed by investors who missed the move re-entering the market. He believes that the probability of a significant Bitcoin pullback is currently decreasing, and market FOMO sentiment may further intensify.

However, Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, remains cautious. He noted that without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear signals of interest rate cuts, it is still too early to confirm the bear market is over, and Bitcoin may lose upward momentum near resistance levels.

Analysts point out that the current rally is driven by multiple factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expansion of its bond buyback program, declining long-term yields, and improved sentiment toward risk assets. Previously, Bitcoin had been consolidating in the $64,000 to $66,000 range, accumulating significant short positions in the market. The breakout triggered cascading liquidations in the derivatives market, accelerating the price surge.

Tobias Bauer, co-founder of TBV, noted that Bitcoin futures trading volume on Binance reached $1.26 billion within a minute—361 times the normal level—while funding rates rose to exchange limits, indicating crowded leveraged longs in the market and rising costs for chasing the rally. (CoinDesk)