Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches $80,000 Mark, ETF Inflows and Macro Liquidity Become Key Variables

Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.

Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.

However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)