Polymarket probability of "US lifting blockade on Iran before September 30" drops to 44%, down 18% in 24 hours

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket of "the US lifting its blockade on Iran before August 31" has fallen to 23%, the lowest level on record for this event so far, down 10% in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the probability of the blockade being lifted before September 30 has dropped to 44%, down 18% in 24 hours.

A spokesman for Iran's Joint Military Command has announced that without approval, no vessel can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any vessel transiting the strait must obtain permission from Iran, which holds full control over the waterway. The spokesman also stated that Trump's claims about controlling the strait are a lie, merely a sign of his military's helplessness. Iran's armed forces will not hesitate in defending national rights, national sovereignty, and the ideals of the Islamic Revolution and the nation, and will respond to any type or level of threat with heavier and more forceful retaliation than ever before.

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