Analysis: 41.5% of Chips Have Been Sold at a Loss—2025 BTC Turnover Approaches That of the Previous Two Bear Markets

Odaily News According to Murphy's analysis, all Bitcoin purchased in 2025 is currently in a loss position. Each time the number of chips from that year decreases, aside from wallet transfers, all other cases involve loss-selling. At present, the remaining Bitcoin purchased in 2025 stands at 4.77 million coins, down 41.5% from the December peak. The decline slope of this chip count is clearly divided into two phases: a rapid decline before February this year, followed by a slowdown after February, though a certain downward slope has persisted.

Currently, this group has become the largest supply-side force in the market. For chips purchased between 2022 and 2024 that remain in a floating profit state, the decline slope of their count has largely passed its steepest phase—even if prices continue to fall, the change in chip count will no longer be significant. Murphy noted that potential chips have already completed their turnover. In the past two bear markets, at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, the number of chips purchased at highs in 2021 fell by 51%; at the bottom of the 2018 bear market, the number of chips purchased at highs in 2017 fell by 62%. Murphy personally believes that the decline at the bottom of this bear market will be at most 50% to 60%, and it currently stands at 41%.