Polymarket data shows that as of the end of August, the probability of Alibaba AI Lab ranking third in the Arena.ai math leaderboard currently stands at 77%, up 56% in the past 24 hours

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket prediction event "Which AI lab will rank third in the Arena.ai math leaderboard as of the end of August?", the probability of Alibaba AI Lab ranking third currently stands at 77%, up 56% in 24 hours, while the probability of Google AI Lab ranking third is currently 18%, down 47% in 24 hours.

This market will be settled based on the company ranked third in the "Lab Rank" column after filtering by "Labs" on the "Leaderboard" page, when checking the Text Arena (Math) leaderboard on Arena.ai at 12:00 PM ET on August 31, 2026.

The specific settlement is based on the "Lab Rank" column in the "Text Arena | Math" leaderboard on Arena.ai. At the time of checking, Style Control must be turned off, Adjustments set to None, and the view filtered by "Labs."

AI companies are first ordered according to their Lab Rank at the time of checking. If the lab ranking results are ambiguous or unavailable, companies are then sorted by their highest-ranked AI model in the "Models" view of the leaderboard.

If two or more models have the same ranking, they are sorted by their Arena Score, including the exact unrounded values in the leaderboard data. If still identical, the alphabetical order of the AI lab/company names listed in this market serves as the final determining criterion.

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