Goldman Sachs: Fed's July Hold Absolutely Correct, Should Stay Flexible Ahead of September

Odaily Planet Daily News: Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan said the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct, urging policymakers to keep an open mind ahead of September, citing the complex factors affecting inflation and warning that rigid forward guidance could be counterproductive. Kaplan noted: "If we see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to continue holding, but I want to make full use of every moment before September to assess the situation, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions."

Kaplan believes the forces currently at play include: inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, labor constraints, and surging oil prices; meanwhile, AI applications are working in the opposite direction, accelerating the trend of disinflation. He suggested that Warsh should use his speech at this month's Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the Fed's reasoning for holding steady in July, rather than delivering a purely "philosophical" address. Kaplan said he is more concerned about the long end of U.S. Treasury yields than the federal funds rate itself. He noted that the rebound in long-term government bond yields globally reflects structural supply-demand imbalances driven by persistent wide fiscal deficits, rather than Fed policy. (Jin Shi)