Polymarket odds of "Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before end of August" drop to 36%, down 21% in 24 hours

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of an "Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of August" has dropped to 36%, down 21% in 24 hours; the probability of an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement before the end of September has dropped to 66%, down 14% in 24 hours.

The event rules state: If Oman and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement regarding traffic in the Strait of Hormuz before the specified date (11:59 PM ET), the outcome will be judged as "Yes." A diplomatic agreement refers to a formal agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument between Oman and Iran that aligns on relevant actions, policies, obligations, or commitments. Credible sources include official information from the Omani and Iranian governments, as well as a consensus of credible reports.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council previously stated that if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that agreement will be handled separately from the issue of the strait's closure. As long as the U.S. does not change its behavior or accept Iran's conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen. The U.S. must end the war, release frozen Iranian funds, and bring an end to all conflicts across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza. Additionally, other conditions communicated to Washington via intermediaries must also be met.

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