Polymarket shows the probability of Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House after the 2026 midterm elections at 50%

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, in Polymarket's "2026 U.S. Midterm Election Congressional Control" prediction market, the probability of Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House is currently reported at 50%; the probability of Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats controlling the House is reported at 38%; and the probability of Republicans controlling both chambers is reported at 12%.

According to the settlement rules, this market will be settled based on which party—Democratic or Republican—controls the Senate and the House following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. In principle, the party that wins a majority of seats in each chamber gains control. However, if no party wins a majority of seats, the party that holds half of the voting seats while also occupying the U.S. Vice Presidency will be deemed to control the Senate.

The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will officially take place on November 3, 2026. Jesse Spiro, a Tether U.S. executive, previously stated that the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could reshape the congressional political landscape, thereby affecting the regulatory progress the crypto industry has achieved in Washington over the past two years.

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