Glassnode: Bitcoin Enters Late-Stage Bear Market Compression Phase, No Genuine Demand Signal Yet

Odaily News, Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is currently trading between a median realized price of approximately $63,000 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $68,700. Spot trading volumes have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, with the market in an extremely quiet state of compression. Core inflation fell to 2.5% in July and stock markets hit new highs, yet Bitcoin has shown almost no reaction or has even weakened, indicating a clear absence of demand. Selling pressure is subsiding, with profitable supply approaching levels seen at previous bear market bottoms. The seller exhaustion indicator has hit cycle lows, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the breakeven line nine times.

Meanwhile, buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, with negligible net inflows into ETFs and Bitcoin still flowing into exchanges. Derivatives leverage has already been heavily skewed toward longs ahead of time, open interest remains relatively high compared to trading volume, and order book bid depth is thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels to watch at approximately $68,700 to the upside and $58,500 to the downside. Only a decisive break above the former, accompanied by a recovery in trading volumes and ETF inflows, would confirm market improvement. If the latter is lost, an accelerated decline is likely given thin buying support and crowded long positioning. Glassnode states that Bitcoin is currently in the late-stage bear market compression phase, and no genuine demand signal has yet emerged.