Nonfarm Payroll Preview: 80K Jobs Expected, Unemployment Rate Forecast at 4.2%

Odaily News: Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. July Nonfarm Payroll report will be released. The market anticipates job gains to rebound to 80,000, but ADP only added 44,000 positions, and Goldman Sachs has also cautioned that July data often undershoots expectations. More critically, behind the stable unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level since 2021.

According to the latest private sector employment data released this week, corporate hiring intentions have weakened, and the resilience of the job market is more attributed to a simultaneous slowdown in both labor supply and demand, rather than a notable pickup in hiring activity.

Reuters data shows that economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to increase by 80,000 in July, up from the 57,000 gain in June; the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are also forecast to remain unchanged at 3.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. Surveys from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, indicate that economists on average project 83,000 new jobs added in July, also higher than the previous month. Although the market broadly expects July job growth to improve from June, economists caution that the report still carries the risk of coming in below expectations. Goldman Sachs economists noted that July nonfarm payroll data has frequently missed market expectations in recent years, while employment growth figures for prior months have also been prone to significant revisions.