Arthur Hayes: The AI Bubble Is a Credit Story Like 2008, Not a Profit Story Like 2000

Odaily News: Arthur Hayes posted on the X platform, stating that his article "Situationship" discusses how the AI bubble will burst and why monetary easing will push BTC back into a bull market. He believes that the key variable in determining whether AI is a bubble lies in the internal framework question, namely that investors should distinguish whether AI capital expenditure represents technology or real estate. The current market treats trillion-dollar-scale construction as technology and assigns high-growth valuation multiples. However, he argues that AI capital expenditure is essentially another form of real estate investment, except that the computing power within data centers will create silicon-based life forms, helping human civilization develop in the most profound way since the railroads. 

Arthur Hayes stated that the distinction between real estate and computing power is important because hedge funds, banks, private credit funds, and ultimately governments are financing data center and power plant construction as if they were lending to Apple, rather than lending to Lehman Brothers. He believes that the bursting of the AI bubble will occur when financial intermediaries, with the tacit support of the Chinese and US governments, overbuild data centers and related infrastructure. Therefore, the AI bubble is a credit story similar to 2008, not a profit story similar to 2000.