"Fed Whisperer": Bessent's policy reaction function has shifted to being less dovish

Odaily News, the "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos stated in an article that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy reaction function has shifted to being less dovish. His remarks this year suggest that the Federal Reserve should continue to hold interest rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models indicating that the Fed's interest rate level could be anywhere from over 25 basis points to more than 100 basis points above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he made two points. First, he defended Warsh's decision last week not to elaborate on any policy reaction function: "I think every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I believe Warsh wants to keep options open to achieve the best outcome."

Second, he did put forward a policy reaction function that could be viewed as dovish, arguing that recent shocks should be ignored: "What impact will a rise in short-term interest rates really have? We will wait and see." He raised the question but then responded by pointing out that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, excluding the more energy-affected volatile items, the rest has been very steady. I think this will continue."