BIT Official: Fed Turns Hawkish, CLARITY Act Prospects Weaken, Bitcoin May Be Near Cycle Bottom

Odaily News, BIT Official released a weekly report stating that trading volume in the crypto market has fallen 80% from its peak, contracting approximately 60% from the Q4 2025 high, while the total crypto market cap has also dropped 50%. The report noted that without a meaningful recovery in volume, the market will struggle to form a sustained rebound.

Despite the market still digesting the double headwinds of the Fed's hawkish policy stance and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin has held within the $62,000 to $66,000 range. BIT Official expects Bitcoin to eventually break upward.

The report stated that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has recently adopted a "say less, do less" communication strategy, and the uncertainty surrounding his policy stance is unsettling the market. Warsh has been known for his hawkish position over the past two decades, but the market had previously anticipated that, with Trump's support, he might push monetary policy in a more dovish direction. If that shift materializes, it could be a positive catalyst for Bitcoin.

Additionally, prediction market data shows that the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 currently stands at just 32%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the Senate will prioritize other issues, and with the August recess approaching, the remaining legislative window for the bill is further narrowing.