洪灝：周期研究与“算命”本质都是预测，区别在于方法论

Odaily News, July 31 — At a Binance offline private session, when discussing the relationship between market cycle research and "metaphysics," renowned economist Hong Hao stated that whether it is investment research or traditional fortune-telling, both are essentially predictions of the future, with the difference lying in the methodology they rely on.

Hong Hao believes that traditional fortune-telling is more based on patterns summarized from long-term empirical observations, while investment research is grounded in historical data, using quantitative analysis to identify patterns and extrapolate future trends. Both are essentially attempts to understand future uncertainty. He noted that market forecasting does not offer a one-size-fits-all answer. "For example, when to buy the dip — I cannot give everyone a single answer, because investment decisions vary from person to person." In his view, whether it is cycle research or prediction, both are fundamentally explorations of future patterns, but any prediction has its boundaries and requires a sense of humility.

Hong Hao concluded: "Prediction, at its core, is peering into the future, and 'divulging the secrets of heaven' is itself a highly challenging endeavor."