Suspected "Anomalous" Address Bets on War Escalation, Polymarket Trader First Goes Long $13 Million in Crude Oil

Odaily Odaily reports that Hyperinsight monitoring shows Polymarket trader "xm39" yesterday placed a test bet of $803 on the "US will invade Iran before 2027" Yes shares. Starting this morning, they completed 223 consecutive purchases over approximately 6 hours. Among their historical 42 open positions, 50 settled trades, and recent 500 activities, this marks their first heavy bet on war and macro geopolitical events.

As of press time, they currently hold 806,700 Yes shares, with a total cost of approximately $223,000, an average price of 27.63 cents, and an unrealized loss of about -4.12%.

According to monitoring, the highly correlated external wallet of "xm39" is a Hyperliquid trading address starting with 0x40f, which is currently the platform's largest long holder of WTI crude oil. Simultaneously, this address is also continuously betting on crude oil prices amid war escalation on Hyperliquid, marking the first time this address has opened a crude oil contract in nearly a year.

Yesterday, this whale accumulated 133,300 WTI crude oil CL contracts, with a transaction volume of approximately $10.791 million and a weighted average price of $80.93. Today, they added a net 2,581.3 contracts.

As of press time, this whale holds 155,200 CL long positions with 20x leverage, with a position value of approximately $13.22 million and an average entry price of $81.8; the position has an unrealized profit of approximately $510,500, with a return rate of about 80.3%. As they continue to roll over positions, the liquidation price has been pushed up to $81.56, inverted relative to the entry price.

Fund flow shows: Today, this whale withdrew approximately $246,400 in four transactions to the 0x2000 system address (HyperEVM).

The first transfer of $100,000 occurred this morning; about one minute later, "xm39" began to concentrate on adding positions in Polymarket. The net withdrawal amount of $246,400 is closely aligned with the $222,200 they invested in the prediction market today.

Based on address correlation, operation timing, and fund size, this capital is highly consistent with being used for betting on "US will invade Iran before 2027" after cross-chain transfer.