Bernstein adjusted its price target for Circle from $190 to $140, judging that the Open USD threat will diminish

Odaily Odaily reports that Bernstein has lowered its price target for Circle from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the Open USD Alliance, backed by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, poses a lower threat to Circle than the market anticipates. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.

In the second quarter, the end-of-period supply of USDC was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, while the average supply rose to around $76 billion. The average SOFR rate in the second quarter fell to 3.62%, the reserve yield dropped to 3.46%, and reserve income increased to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has grown from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating approximately $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which about $190 million is directed to the exchange under a revenue sharing agreement.

Bernstein has lowered its USDC supply forecast for the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion, and its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast was cut by 12% to $602 million, and its EPS forecast was reduced from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm predicts that by 2035, the total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion, with Circle capturing about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust. (The Block)